How Kentucky’s depth can propel them to a March Madness run

After reaching the Final Four an astounding five times, including one national championship, in John Calipari’s first nine years as head coach of the Kentucky men’s basketball team, the program has struggled to get back up to the highest level. Since the COVID-19 pandemic canceled the 2020 NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats have won just one tournament game in the following three years.

This year’s iteration of Kentucky basketball has had its share of ups and downs, including key wins over North Carolina and Auburn as well as horrific losses such as the home defeat to UNC-Wilmington. The defense is among the worst the program has ever seen, as they rank 118th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to metrics from Bart Torvik. The inconsistency combined with such an obvious flaw is enough to turn anyone away from Calipari’s ‘Cats, but the one thing they have that can surely turn the tides in March is depth.

Like almost all great teams, Kentucky has a star. Antonio Reeves, in his second season with the program, has had a breakout year, averaging 20.0 points per game on 51% shooting from the field and 44% from three. Those numbers should certainly be enough to make an All-American team and amid the turmoil that has been this season, Reeves has been steady all the way. For the Wildcats to be successful, Reeves must continue to be the head of the dragon and be the offense that is always there when all else fails.

The second and third leading scorers are players who few predicted would have the success that they’re enjoying. Not only have Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard been electric spark plugs off of the bench, but they have also shot into the top 10 of many expert’s mock drafts for the 2024 NBA Draft. Dillingham, who is averaging 15.1 points per game has provided the Wildcats with instant offense whenever he’s on the floor, as he uses his quickness and athleticism to get to the rim and finish with a crafty layup package. He’s also shooting 44% from three on over four attempts per game which keeps defenses honest.

Sheppard has been an incredibly unique talent that has defied expectations. An undersized guard who was only the fifth-highest ranked freshman in Kentucky’s class coming into the season, Sheppard quickly jumped into a highly important role with the team. The calling-card of his game is his jump-shot. Many would argue that he’s the best shooter in college basketball already, and his gaudy 51% from behind the arc backs that up. He’s the epitome of a combo guard who can play either on or off the ball as his advanced feel for the game allows him to fit in seamlessly in whatever role he needs to take. Finally, his ability as a playmaking defender has been crucial in the biggest moments this season. It is rare to see a guard who is undersized and not a freak athlete be so smart and quick at reading opposing offenses and making the great play everytime. He averages 2.6 steals (!) as well as 0.7 blocks per game and if both he and Dillingham keep playing at the level they have shown, Kentucky will be hard to stop. 

After Reeves, Dillingham, and Sheppard, forward Tre Mitchell has been a quality role player for the team. The three-time transfer is averaging 11.2 points and 7.1 rebounds per game and has been able to stretch the floor in a way that is invaluable for the Wildcats. Out of the four big men that are in the rotation, Mitchell is the only one with a truly dangerous three-point shot. While he’s only shooting 31% from deep this year, defenses must play him honestly or he’ll burn them. Back and shoulder injuries caused Mitchell to miss six games earlier in the year, but now that he’s healthy he will give the Wildcats an important blend of shot-making ability and interior defensive prowess.

The play of DJ Wagner, Justin Edwards, and Aaron Bradshaw has been amongst the most curious of cases on an already unique team. All three were ranked in the top 10 of the 2023 recruiting class but none have even come close to their potential. Wagner has had the most consistent minutes and has started in all but one of the games he’s played (he missed four games with an ankle injury). He’s averaging 10.6 points and 3.4 assists per game but has shot the ball very poorly. Edwards, who is also playing major minutes and has started 27 games, is shooting slightly better from the field than Wagner but has struggled to imprint his presence on the game. He’s been poor off the ball and must mature quickly to find himself in a team as deep as Kentucky. Bradshaw has taken a different path than the other two, as he missed the first month of the season with a foot injury. Making a significant impact as a freshman who was sidelined for the first chunk of the season is incredibly difficult, and Bradshaw has not been able to impact the game at a high level. He has since seen his minutes decrease and now only operates in about six to 15 minutes per game off the bench. Despite the floundering of all three players, they are all highly talented and it looks like Calipari is going to stick with them as significant pieces of the rotation going forwards.

Aside from Mitchell and Bradshaw, depth at the center position is turning out to be a strength of the team through Ugonna Onyenso and Zvonimir Ivisic. Both players missed significant time at the start of the season and are just now getting into their rhythm. That can especially be seen with Onyenso, who has recently jumped into the starting lineup since recovering from a foot injury. Onyenso’s calling card is his defensive presence. He’s averaging a ridiculous 2.6 blocks per game in 18.0 minutes of action, and his capabilities have been among one of the only things keeping this disorganized Kentucky defense together. Ivisic, since becoming eligible, is a good shot-blocker and can also space out and attempt threes. Don’t be surprised if both players play crucial roles in the stretch run.

Finally, all good teams need a glue guy and Adou Thiero provides just that. Standing at 6’8’’ after a recent growth spurt, Thiero plays at the spot of a guard with the size of a forward. He is uber-athletic, and thrives in catching lobs and finishing at the rim. While not advanced at being an on-ball creator, he is steady handling the ball amid pressure. Thiero also thrives as a rebounder and defender, making his status as the team’s glue guy very important going into March.

While everything is clearly not the same, similarities can be drawn between this team and the Kentucky team from the 2014-15 season. That team became known for their depth and it showed as the season progressed and they made their run to the Final Four where they were upset by Wisconsin. Comparisons can also be drawn to the play of Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis, who, similar to Dillingham and Sheppard, were key contributors off the bench that really made the team go. While many things can go wrong for the 2023-24 Kentucky Wildcats come March, the overall breadth of talent will pay off as the adversity ramps up and various players are thrown into the spotlight.