Finding the best teams to make a Final Four run

After an eventful past four months in the ever-evolving world of college basketball, the postseason is finally here. For many, the 68 team, single elimination tournament that has come to be known as March Madness is the best time of year in the sports calendar. However, the euphoria and excitement that the tournament brings is a byproduct of unpredictability. No person in the history of the sport has ever predicted a perfect bracket and while this certainly will not be the year that changes, we’ve got some teams that fans should feel pretty safe about making a deep run to the Final Four and beyond. Some of these programs have been among the best of the best all season and some are just rounding into form now but no matter how they got here, they look like they’re here to stay.

UConn (#1 Seed, East Region)

Image via Ian Bethune/The UConn Blog

The list starts out with no surprises, as the defending champion Huskies have enjoyed a dominant season in which they earned both the Big East regular season and tournament titles and received the #1 overall seed in the Big Dance. Connecticut comes in as arguably the most well-rounded team in the field, as it’s very difficult to pinpoint a weakness in their starting lineup. In the backcourt, Tristen Newton has put together an All-American level season, leading the Huskies in points and assists while Cam Spencer, in his first season with the program, has made an immediate impact and is shooting 44% from three on almost six attempts per game. Freshman Stephon Castle is among the most unique players in college basketball as his defensive ability combined with his skill with the ball in his hands has made him a potential lottery selection in this year’s upcoming NBA Draft. For the frontcourt, Alex Karaban plays the power forward position about as well as it can be played. His strong shooting ability and advanced feel for the game make him irreplaceable in the lineup. Donovan Clingan rounds out the group and his mobility and rim-protection are priceless from the center position.

Looking at their potential path to the Final Four, it is no secret that the East Region is perhaps the toughest in the field. With Iowa State, Illinois, and Auburn along with San Diego State and Florida Atlantic (who both made the Final Four last year), there are multiple potential scares forthcoming. However, if anyone is built to withstand a difficult region it is UConn. They’ll face Stetson in the first round with either FAU or Northwestern after that assuming they advance. From depth to experience, the Huskies both know how to win and have done it before and don’t overthink it, you can trust UConn in March.

North Carolina (#1 Seed, West Region)

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Once again, another #1 seed is a good bet to make a chalky run. This North Carolina team is no joke, as similar to UConn, they are a well rounded program that has been on the big stage before. Two years ago, the team led by RJ Davis and Armando Bacot among others made a shock run to the title game where they came up just short and this looks like the year to make a return to the game’s biggest stage. Davis is the head of the dragon and he has taken a massive leap in his production. His shotmaking ability is incredibly difficult to contain and if teams aren’t careful, he’ll burn them for 20-plus every night. Bacot, in his fifth year with the program, has seen his numbers slightly dip but that doesn’t mean he isn’t still a highly talented big man that is more than capable of winning the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award. Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram are two high-level transfers that have showcased big-time shooting abilities throughout the year as well as toughness through their experience. That experience is offset with the youth of underclassman Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble who have done a great job with a lot of the ball-handling duties.

The West Region does not project to be as difficult as the East, which should help out the Tar Heels’. Arizona (who has struggled heavily in the tournament under Tommy Lloyd) along with Baylor and Alabama (who have both been very inconsistent at times this year) are the next highest seeds so don’t be surprised if North Carolina finds themselves facing a heavy underdog in the Elite Eight. #10 Nevada and #11 New Mexico could each be that team but either way, North Carolina looks primed and in the ideal region to return to the Final Four.

Kentucky (#3 Seed, South Region)

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The Wildcats are the first non-#1 seed on the list and not without good reason. Kentucky has perhaps the best depth in the country as their rotation, while inexperienced, has a ridiculous amount of talent. Antonio Reeves is averaging over 20 points per game this season; Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard are potential top 10 picks in the 2024 NBA Draft; Justin Edwards is highly touted freshman that is rounding into form; Ugonna Onyenso, Tre Mitchell, Zvonimir Ivisic, and Aaron Bradshaw are high-level bigs that can make a large impact; and DJ Wagner and Adou Thiero are underclassman that can provide a spark at any time. The Wildcats have also been getting into a rhythm at just the right time. They won five games in a row to end the regular season, including a huge road win against Tennessee, who is a two-seed. While Kentucky fell to Texas A&M in the SEC Quarterfinals, it should be understood that the conference tournament has little impact on the momentum of the top teams in the country going into the NCAA Tournament. To Kentucky, the SEC Tournament is just about meaningless compared to the Big Dance which is the end goal.

Kentucky, being the #3 seed, is naturally not the favorite to come out of the South Region. Houston and Marquette are the #1 and #2 seeds, respectively, but both sides have limped to the finish line. For Marquette it is a literal limp as their best player, Tyler Kolek, is recovering from an oblique injury suffered in February and hasn’t played since. The Golden Eagles have gone 5-3 since Kolek’s injury, not a number resembling a flourishing #2 seed. Houston struggled down the stretch as well as they got trounced by Iowa State in the Big-12 Championship, a game where their notable offensive problems reared its ugly heads. Other than that, Duke and Wisconsin are the next two highest seeds. Both programs have struggled mightily with inconsistency, so this region appears to be a good place for Kentucky to thrive.

Creighton (#3 Seed, Midwest Region)

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Picking Creighton might be the boldest selection on the list, but the Bluejays have more than enough to make a deep run. The reason for their selection starts with talent. While they clearly don’t have the depth that a team like Kentucky has, they have some of the best star power in the country. Baylor Scheierman has taken a giant step forward to take the reins as alpha of the team, and it will likely lead him to an All-American team at the conclusion of the season. The fifth-year swingman is leading the team in points and rebounds and is also one of the best shooters in the country. Trey Alexander has proven to be a stud in his time in Omaha as well, and his athleticism and three-point ability have made him a candidate for this year’s NBA Draft. Ryan Kalkbrenner is among the best rim protectors in all of the sport and has taken another leap in terms of his offensive ability. Steven Ashworth is no slouch too, as he has taken on the point guard duties and played extremely well since filling in for Ryan Nembhard after his departure to Gonzaga. The thing that sets Creighton above many others, similar to UConn and North Carolina, is their experience in the NCAA Tournament. All three of Scheierman, Alexander, and Kalkbrenner were a part of their run to the Elite Eight last year, so they all know what it’s like to play good basketball in March.

Purdue and Tennessee are the top two seeds in the Midwest Region, but they both have proven to be beatable. Purdue’s role players can struggle to show up, which could lead to the Bluejays or another team (think Utah State, TCU, or McNeese State) picking off the Boilermakers. This Tennessee team is also slightly offensively challenged, which makes them a prime candidate for an early exit when a lid gets put on the rim. Kansas and Gonzaga also loom in the region but Kansas is beaten up and headed in the wrong direction and it’s almost guaranteed that Creighton would love to get a crack at Nembhard’s Bulldogs. While the Midwest Region is not bad, experience and high-end talent can carry the Bluejays to their first Final Four in school history.