by Tier 1 (Top 5 Total Point Upside)
- Travis Kelce
This was probably the easiest tier to make of all the position groups. Travis Kelce has been a top-2 fantasy tight end for the last six seasons. He’s got one of the best, if not the best quarterback in all of football throwing to him in Patrick Mahomes. The only other top-tier target threat from this team, Tyreek Hill, is now a Miami Dolphin, leaving more opportunity for Kelce than ever. Sure, there’s a chance that not having Tyreek on the field impacts the way defenses can focus on Kelce, but he’s one of the best tight ends ever. I’ll take my chances betting on him to finish as the #1 TE in fantasy, and he’s also the only tight end I would consider taking in the first round of drafts. Look for Kelce to have another massive year, even as he eclipses his age-33 season.
Tier 2A (Set and Forget TE1s)
- Mark Andrews
- Kyle Pitts
Mark Andrews was the tight end I was the highest on last season, and it paid off, as he finished as the #1 overall TE in fantasy. Over the past three seasons, Andrews has been thought of as Lamar Jackson’s #1 target in the passing game.
The big difference from last year was the fact that because their entire backfield dealt with serious injuries all season long, Baltimore had to throw the ball more than they usually like to. Baltimore finished in the top half of the league last season in passing yards, a lot different than their bottom four finishes in back-to-back prior seasons.
With all their running backs set to be ready for, if not the start of the season, at least very early on, I expect Baltimore to go back to what they do best: run the ball. This will put a cap on Andrews’ fantasy production to the point where he won’t be able to replicate last seasons’ statistics. However, with his talent and connection with quarterback Lamar Jackson, he should still be able to put up top-5 TE numbers.
Everyone’s favorite tight end to own before the start of last season was Kyle Pitts, and the outlook doesn’t look much different this season. Pitts put up the second most receiving yards ever by a rookie tight end with 1,026 yards. The problem with Pitts’ amazing rookie season was the fact that he only found pay dirt once.
I expect some positive regression in the touchdown department for Pitts, even with his quarterback situation looking even worse than it did last season. He’s just that good. Pitts has another shot at 100+ targets as a tight end, which only six tight ends did all of last season. Even with the addition of first round pick Drake London, there should still be more than enough opportunity for the Falcons’ best player to have a monster season.
Tier 2B (TE1s with “Set and Forget” Upside)
- Darren Waller
- George Kittle
Both Waller and Kittle have been the other top three tight ends for the last couple of seasons, alongside Kelce. The times are changing however, with the young buck Pitts taking on of those spots for me and Andrews’ monster season last year showing he has just as much upside as this group.
However, with tight end still being the weakest position in fantasy, both these guys should still be viewed as “set and forget” TE1s, just not to the level that Pitts and Andrews are on.
For Waller, he dealt with injuries last season, as he was limited to only 11 games. In those 11 games, he still almost managed to put up 100 targets and almost 1,000 yards receiving. This season will most likely be different with Davante Adams now in town as the bona fide alpha for the Raiders’ offense, but that could mean a few things. It could mean that Waller ends up getting a little less volume, but he won’t have to worry about the defense trying to stop him as much because they’ll be so focused on Adams.
It could also mean that Adams vacuums up all the important targets, such as red zone targets and third downs, that his arrival does much more damage to Waller than we think it will. My guess is the production for Waller lands somewhere in the middle. Waller’s middling production is still more than enough to keep him in the discussion of top five fantasy tight ends.
I think Kittle’s production is much more threatened by his team’s offseason moves than Waller’s. This is largely in part due to the expected quarterback change, where Trey Lance will most likely take over the starting gig from Jimmy Garappolo.
It’s been quite clear that Kittle and Garappolo had a connection that benefited Kittle immensely throughout the past few seasons. Of Lance’s two starts from last season, Kittle was only healthy for one of them. In that game against the Texans in week #17, Kittle finished with a catch for 29 yards on two targets.
Now, I don’t think that type of production will be equivalent to Kittle’s season-long production with Trey Lance at quarterback, but it was concerning to see. With how low the bar is in fantasy at the tight end position, I still view Kittle as a must-start for now, but there’s too much downside for me to have many shares of Kittle this season.
Tier 3 (Low-end TE1s with Upside)
- Dalton Schultz
- Zach Ertz
- TJ Hockenson
- Dallas Goedert
This is the last tier of tight ends I feel comfortable about drafting and not having to stream at the position. All these guys are projected to have at least a good enough role in their respective offenses to yield TE1 fantasy production. However, I see myself avoiding this tier based off of where you have to draft them. I’ll most likely wait until the end of the draft to get my tight end unless I get one of the top tier tight ends.
Dalton Schultz’s calling card to TE1 fantasy production is pretty simple. He was one of the six tight ends to eclipse the 100-target mark last season, and two of the Cowboys’ main targets are now off the team. With Dallas being a pass first offense, Schultz is projected to get an even bigger workload, something that I always like having from my tight end.
Schultz also scored eight touchdowns last season, another number that could possibly go up if Dallas maintains their status as the best scoring offense in the league. So, while Schultz might not be the sexiest pick at tight end, he has a lot of ways that he should be able to tap into at least top-10 TE production with upside for more. He would be the tight end I try to target most within this tier.
Zach Ertz is the oldest of this tier, but that isn’t to say he has any less upside than everyone else. In fact, other than Schultz, I think Ertz has the most upside of the four tight ends in this tier. He has put up massive numbers in fantasy before (4 straight top-4 finishes from 2016-2019), and could have similar usage to those top tight end seasons from the past this season.
This is in large part due to the fact that de facto #1 WR DeAndre Hopkins will be suspended for the first six games of the season, and there isn’t a lot of top talent at the other skill positions to compete with. Newly acquired Marquise Brown will probably be the target leader through the first six weeks, but I wouldn’t be shocked if that title went to Ertz either. During the last four weeks of last season, Ertz averaged 10.75 targets per game. If he can continue to garner that type of volume with Kyler Murray as his quarterback, Ertz has top five tight end upside.
I think the Lions have the makings of a potentially league average offense with upside for more. TJ Hockenson is one of the reasons why. Jared Goff has been a big proponent of getting his starting tight ends to produce fantasy relevant stat lines. It was Tyler Higbee with the Rams, and ever since becoming Detroit’s starting quarterback it’s been Hockenson.
I also believe Hockenson is a much more talented tight end than Higbee is, so from that standpoint alone I like Hockenson’s fantasy prospects. Those factors along with the fact that their Detroit’s passing game coordinator is now their former tight end coach, who got Hockenson featured in the passing game ever since he was drafted to Detroit, he could finish top five in fantasy points at the position.
While Schultz has bountiful pathways to get to his fantasy ceiling, Dallas Goedert’s fantasy value has more ways of going down than up. With Philadelphia’s addition of AJ Brown this offseason, a lot of the passing volume will go his way, since he will most likely take over the alpha role in this offense.
Another reason I think Goedert’s fantasy output could see a slide is the fact that the Eagles ran the ball tremendously down the stretch of last season. With the league’s best offensive line, I could see them focusing more on the rushing game earlier in the season. Add those factors together, plus the fact he has a mobile quarterback who will look to take off running on some of the perceived passing plays, I’m not sure how high Goedert’s ceiling really is.
Tier 4 (Have the Talent and Should Get the Volume)
- Dawson Knox
- Pat Freiermuth
- Cole Kmet
- David Njoku
- Gerald Everett
- Irv Smith Jr.
The reason I think I’ll end up waiting on tight end is because I think some of these guys lower in ADP and my rankings have the same types of upside as the guys in the middle rounds. They might not compete with Kelce, Andrews or Pitts in terms of overall production, but there’s definitely upside to be had late in drafts at the tight end spot.
Dawson Knox starts this tier as being a tight end in a top five offense with a top tier quarterback AND some a potentially big jump in the target department. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, last year’s #2 and #3 on the team in targets, are now gone and there’s 184 targets to fill from the void they left.
While many are speculating that Gabe Davis takes on a majority of those targets, myself included, I don’t see any reason Dawson Knox can’t find his way to at least 100 targets. One hundred targets in this good of an offense is always something to target, especially when you don’t have to draft it until the 9th or 10th rounds.
Knox was also a big factor in the red zone and finished second on the team in receiving touchdowns with nine. While that number may slightly regress, it could also just as easily climb into the double-digits.
Now with Knox, you can see easy paths to both upticks in volume and scoring. With my next tight end, most of his value comes in the touchdown department. Pat Freiermuth might not get much more volume than he did last season (79 targets), but he will most likely garner the same amount of red zone targets, if not more.
He had seven touchdowns this season, all of which came inside the red zone. If you can’t get a target hog at tight end, you might as well get one that has high volume scoring potential. Now, the new quarterback situation might influence his target share both in and outside of the red zone, but I believe in Freiermuth’s talent level to overcome those factors. Plus, with the offensive line still in shambles, the Steelers will probably still have to use a relatively quick passing game, making Freiermuth a valuable safety net for either Trubisky or Pickett.
The Bears’ offense might end up being among the worst in the league, but Justin Fields showed some promise during the stretch run of last season. With another year of almost nobody to throw to, he’ll have to make use of the only two receiving threats that might have a future with this team: wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet. Kmet almost finished last year with 93 targets for the Bears, good for second on the team after Mooney.
There’s room for more targets as well, with Allen Robinson leaving the team this offseason, who was third on the team with 66 targets. Also, Kmet is due for some positive touchdown regression, after having none last season. While I don’t think Kmet will score double digit touchdowns because the Bears’ offense is that bad, anywhere from 4-8 seems possible for someone who should gain 100+ targets this season.
While the Browns’ quarterback situation remains in flux until we get an official ruling on the suspension status of Deshaun Watson, the top options in the passing game are free falling down fantasy rankings. David Njoku is the perfect buy-low opportunity at a position that some people might resort to streaming anyways.
The Browns gave Njoku a monster 4yr/$54.75M contract this offseason, meaning he got paid like he’s going to be the #2 option in the passing offense behind Amari Cooper. While Njoku has never been a major contributor during his tenure with the Browns, he’s never had a quarterback that has helped elevate his game. There were numerous targets last season alone where Baker Mayfield just flat out missed Njoku wide open down the seam. When Watson comes back, Njoku will be a threat to put up consistent TE1 numbers.
Gerald Everett is in the same realm as Dawson Knox, just with more competition and he’s new to his high-powered offense. However, there should still be a decent role for Everett within the other team in L.A. since he could take over Jared Cook’s role within the offense.
Cook finished with 83 targets last season that led him to just under 600 yards and 4 touchdowns. If Everett can get that same type of workload, I believe he is more talented and has more potential upside with that volume than Cook did last season.
He flashed in his time with the Rams but didn’t show much with Seattle last season in one of the league’s worst offenses once Russell Wilson got hurt. If Everett can develop chemistry quickly with Justin Herbert, he has a shot to put up Cook’s numbers or better.
I love targeting the Vikings’ offense this season, and Irv Smith Jr., much like David Njoku, is the perfect buy-low opportunity into that offense. With Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook both going near the top of drafts and Thielen’s age being a little worrying, there aren’t a lot of ways to get into Minnesota’s offense.
With new head coach Kevin O’Connell coming from the Sean McVay coaching tree, I think Smith will get more opportunity than he has before in Minnesota. Now, since he missed all of last season, I’m unsure what that workload could entail, but I’m assuming he could get similar volume to what Tyler Higbee got last season with the Rams as the fourth option in that offense. That could be enough to get low-end TE1 production.
Tier 5 (Worth a Flier)
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- Noah Fant
- Mike Gesicki
- Kyle Rudolph
- Austin Hooper
- Evan Engram
There isn’t much to talk about these guys since I think most of them will be available on waivers after your drafts, but I’ll quickly go through their potential outcomes and how they could be valuable in fantasy.
Albert Okwuegbunam is Broncos’ version of Irv Smith Jr.: the cheapest way to buy into a top offense, but we haven’t seen much of anything from him since he got drafted by Denver. Now that Noah Fant is gone, Albert O should take on the starting tight end job in Denver.
The Broncos did draft a tight end in round three of the draft, but he’ll probably be the second tight end, at least for the start of the season. If Albert O can showcase his talent early and somewhat often in an offense with a lot of mouths to feed, he has a chance to carve a role out for himself.
Next up is the former Bronco Noah Fant, who is extremely talented but is now in one of the worst offenses in the league with fellow former Bronco Drew Lock at quarterback. He’s also at least the third option in an offense that projects to be run heavy with Rashaad Penny and rookie Ken Walker III in the backfield.
With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett easily the top two options in the passing game in Seattle, the one thing Fant has going for himself right now is that he already has some connection with Lock. Best case scenario for Fant is that Seattle acquires Jimmy Garappolo, who showed he can help support a top five fantasy tight end with George Kittle.
Mike Gesicki is one of my easy fades from the tight end spot. I could be very wrong with new head coach Mike McDaniel being used to having a talented tight end to use as a key part of his offensive philosophy.
But in my mind, adding Tyreek Hill to an offense that already had Jaylen Waddle means there won’t be a ton of targets to go around.
Miami also added Cedrick Wilson, who played well for the Cowboys in his own right last season. Add in McDaniel likes to run the ball early and often, and I don’t see a lot of potential outcomes for Gesicki to be a viable fantasy TE1.
Tom Brady has always had a habit of targeting his tight ends. Granted, his normal tight end was one of the best of all time in Rob Gronkowski. However, Kyle Rudolph was a very solid and consistent tight just a few years back for Minnesota, with three-straight top twelve fantasy finishes from 2016-2018.
He’s also always been a good red zone target, something I’m sure Tom Brady will make use of. Even with touchdown machine Mike Evans most likely going to gobble up majority of the scoring that comes from the passing offense, Rudolph will definitely be given opportunities to capitalize on his scoring prowess.
Tennessee is one of the teams that I think is due for significant regression after their overachieving #1 seed in the AFC last season. A big part of that is the departure of star wide receiver AJ Brown, which leaves the Titans with a receiver combo of Robert Woods (coming off a torn ACL) and rookie Treylon Burks. The Titans did sign Austin Hooper this offseason, and even though he didn’t produce much at all during his time in Cleveland, he’ll be force-fed targets out of necessity by quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
Tannehill helped Jonnu Smith get a big contract from New England two offseasons ago AND made Anthony Firkser a solid streaming tight end during the stretch run of last season. If Hooper is completely washed, there will be opportunity to produce in this average offense.
Lastly, we have Evan Engram. He always seems to be touted with breakout potential before every season, and then goes on to do nothing with the Giants every single year. Trevor Lawrence is probably the best quarterback he’ll have played with in his young career, but that isn’t saying much.
If he has any potential for upside though, now is the time to show it. He’ll have ample opportunity on a Jaguars squad that lacks top end receiving talent, which means he might get volume whether he deserves it or not.
@ben7565 on Twitter
Photo Credits: PFF
All statistics used are sourced through hyperlinks within the text. Thanks to everyone whose work helped me complete my tier list. Goodluck and Happy Drafting!
