2022-23 Fantasy Football PPR QB Tier List

Tier 1 (MVP-level Upside)

1. Josh Allen
2. Justin Herbert
3. Lamar Jackson
4. Patrick Mahomes

The reason I named this tier, “MVP-level Upside” is for that exact reason. I believe these four quarterbacks could put up MVP-level production with their respective talents and situations. While there are a few QBs outside this range that can clearly still get the MVP, I don’t think it will be by flat out beating these guys’ projected production.

Josh Allen is my favorite to win the MVP award this season, not only because I think the Bills have a good shot to make another deep playoff run, but because of what he can do in both the passing and rushing game. There aren’t many quarterbacks in the league that can match his combination of arm talent and rushing ability. He finished 2^nd in total touchdowns (behind Tom Brady), 4^th in total yards last season and since 2019, Josh Allen has the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback with 23.

While he did lose two of his top three receivers in terms of targets (Sanders and Beasley), that just means more targets for Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Plus, Buffalo did try to replace Beasley in the offseason by signing Jamison Crowder. Josh Allen should have enough tools at his disposal to repeat as the #1 quarterback in fantasy.

This next guy was one of the people ahead of Allen in terms of total yards last season, and he might be in an even better offense. I’m talking about Justin Herbert, who has quickly become one of the game’s best signal callers for the Chargers. He finished last season as the #2 quarterback in fantasy last year, and he could very easily end up being overall QB1 this year.

He has better skill players than Allen, with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler leading the way. They also replaced Jared Cook with Gerald Everett, which I see as an upgrade, and I expect a jump from sophomore wide receiver Josh Palmer. All those toys, coupled with one of the best offensive lines in football, and Justin Herbert should be leading one of the best offenses in football AND be putting up MVP-level numbers in the process.

Despite the immense amount of talent the two guys I just talked about have, Lamar Jackson can easily outproduce both from a fantasy perspective. Jackson put up the 4^th best fantasy quarterback scoring season ever during his 2019 MVP season, where he had 1,206 rushing yards AS A QUARTERBACK! To put that in perspective, only two (!) running backs eclipsed that number last season.

Now, that is currently the most rushing yards by a quarterback in a single season in NFL history, but Jackson has another 1,000-yard rushing season on his resume. It is well within his range of outcomes that he could be a top 10 passer AND rusher next season, if he stays healthy. Add in some positive touchdown regression and more health from his entire team in general, Baltimore can move back to the type of offense they were running during the 2019 and 2020 seasons that brought Lamar into the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks.

This is the lowest I’ve been on the Chiefs’ offense since Patrick Mahomes’ first full season, but it obviously has nothing to do with Mahomes’ talent level. After trading away former All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs tried to retool almost their entire wide receiver room. Of the projected starters at wide receiver, none of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdez-Scantling or Skyy Moore have ever taken an NFL snap from Mahomes. Other than Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman, Mahomes has a full restocked receiving cupboard, but this time the Chiefs filled the cupboard with discount versions of what used to be in there.

I have no doubt that Mahomes will be able to get the best out of his weapons, because that’s what generational quarterback play can do. My question is will their best be enough to make up for everything Tyreek Hill brought to the table and help Mahomes maintain the top six fantasy production he has consistently produced ever since becoming the starter.