by There are officially under five weeks until Selection Sunday for the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and as we head towards the stretch run, teams are starting to play games that will either make or break their season. After a busy weekend, let’s look at the biggest takeaways.
UConn and Purdue stand a step above the rest.
Image via CBS Sports
With about a month left, #1 UConn and #2 Purdue are showing the rest of the country that they’re the cream of the crop in the world of college basketball. The Huskies and Boilermakers have sat at the top two spots in the AP Poll for five straight weeks now, and there is no reason to think that either will falter anytime soon. UConn went on the road and crushed Georgetown on Saturday afternoon, extending their win streak to 12 games. They have yet to lose in 2024 and have looked completely dominant, with their only Big East loss coming in the first league game of the season (at Seton Hall on Dec. 20). Personnel-wise, they have very few weaknesses with their veteran backcourt of Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer along with potential lottery picks Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle. Sharpshooting forward Alex Karaban has also returned from injury to give them potentially the most dynamic starting-five in the country. Perhaps the only thing that can slow down their case to be the #1 overall seed come March is two games against #7 Marquette (one on the road) and a road game at #19 Creighton in the coming weeks.
Purdue has put up a similar resume, beating Indiana 79-59 on Saturday for their eighth straight win. The Boilermakers look much more potent than the team they put out last year that was upset by Fairleigh Dickinson, and they’re rounding into form at just the right time. All-American center Zach Edey looks primed to win his second straight National Player of the Year award and sophomore guards Braden Smith and Foster Loyer have taken a step forward in their maturity. Graduate transfer Lance Jones has been the x-factor for this squad as he’s their second-leading scorer and has been great on both ends of the floor. Purdue will face off against five unranked opponents in their next five games before taking #10 Illinois and #11 Wisconsin to end the regular season. At this pace, there is no reason to think that the Boilermakers will slow down any time soon.
Gonzaga-Kentucky was a battle between two teams going in opposite directions.
Image via Gonzaga University Athletics
Many fans were likely very surprised to turn on their televisions and see a non-conference game between Gonzaga and #17 Kentucky in February. The contest was a fun one, with Gonzaga going into Rupp Arena and beating the Wildcats in dramatic fashion, 89-85. Like we said earlier, we’re getting to the time of year where teams play games that can make or break their season, and that has not been more evident than with Gonzaga. A very shaky early season record left the Bulldogs with zero Quad 1 victories and before Saturday’s game, few experts had Gonzaga in the 68-team tournament field. In the first year post-Drew Timme, the Zags just have not had the talent that many have hoped and that has put their season in major jeopardy. However, a win at Kentucky was the statement that they needed to get on the right side of the bubble. The Bulldogs will have games at San Francisco and Saint Mary’s circled on their calendars to strengthen their at-large status.
On the other hand, Kentucky, whose tournament status is not quite in doubt, is trending downwards. After a fast start to SEC play highlighted by the emergence of freshman guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, the Wildcats have struggled as of late, losing four of their last six games. Among all of their problems, none have been as evident as their defensive struggles. Their on-ball defense has been atrocious as many of their guards (with the exception of Sheppard) are undersized and their help side and post defense have also been terrible. Inconsistency has been a major factor as well, as hardly anyone other than Antonio Reeves (19.6 points per game) has shown up, scoring-wise, night in and night out. Kentucky will need to see stronger performances from guys like DJ Wagner, Justin Edwards, and Aaron Bradshaw if they not only want to help their team win late in the season but also improve their draft stock. The Wildcats still have some major tests remaining on their schedule, with matchups at #12 Auburn and #6 Tennessee looming large.
SEC showing improved depth
Image via Florida Gators
Despite Kentucky’s lackluster outings as of late, the SEC as a whole is starting to show some improved depth. This past weekend, the conferences bubble teams drastically improved their resumes as Florida beat #12 Auburn and Texas A&M beat #6 Tennessee. Mississippi State also won a road game against a bad Missouri team. All three of these teams must play with urgency, as every game holds significant weight to their tournament hopes. #15 South Carolina and #15 Alabama also continued to stay hot in league play as they beat Vanderbilt and LSU, respectively. If they continue to trend upwards, both teams will quickly find themselves in “lock” territory.
To project the conference’s NCAA Tournament outlook as of now, it’s safe to say that Tennessee and Auburn are in for sure, with Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky (despite their current issues) in the back half of that category as well. Texas A&M and Florida are in the bubble conversation, but if the season ended today they’d both likely get in somewhere in the 7-10 seed range. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are right on the edge, with the former having a slightly better resume than the latter. Georgia is the only other team in the conference with a shot at making the tournament, but they have some serious work to do. If all of those teams (excluding Georgia) get in, it would be the most teams the SEC has ever sent to the NCAA Tournament in a single season.
Wisconsin is fading fast (and taking the Big 10 with them).
Image via Badgers Wire–USA Today
On Jan. 26, Wisconsin had just beaten Michigan State, risen up to #6 in the AP Poll, and looked like the clear-cut second best team in the Big 10, a conference desperately looking for an identity outside of Purdue. Since then, they’ve lost four games in a row, including a 22 point loss at Rutgers on Saturday. Their offense faltered with key players such as Tyler Wahl, Steven Crowl, Max Klesmit, and Chucky Hepburn hardly able to generate any rhythm at all and combining for just 19 total points. If they’re going to succeed in March, leading scorer AJ Storr is going to need some help carrying the load. Only Connor Essegian off the bench was able to create any sort of offense against Rutgers, and guys like Wahl and Klesmit will have to find their identity and fast.
With the Badgers’ recent struggles, the Big 10 has once again found itself with a noticeable absence of top teams in the country. Illinois is probably the new favorite for the second-best team, but they also lost on Saturday, this time to Michigan State. The Spartans and Northwestern are probably the next-best teams but neither of them are even close to the AP Poll. It’s been said again and again but the Big 10 has an identity crisis, and given their past failures in the NCAA Tournament, it’s getting very, very noticeable. Wisconsin looked for a while like they were supposed to be that second great team, but it’s become apparent that they are just not. At the very least, not yet.
