by The most polarizing player in the draft, Airious (Ace) Bailey, leaves countless basketball fans in debates. The Rutgers forward leaves many wondering what his game will look like at the NBA level.
How Will His Scoring Translate?
Bailey, despite being 6’10” as a forward, heavily relies on jump shots. Even with him being guarded by someone smaller than him nearly every possession, he shoots just an average efficiency of 46% from the field and 34.6% from three. This leaves a big question of how he can mature as a scorer in the NBA.
Bailey will need to develop critical off-ball skills if he wants a chance to become a premier scorer. In college, he was constantly standing around, waiting for the ball to come his way, leaving the offense stagnant and reliant on contested jump shots. With his size and athleticism, he can be a dangerous cutter and lob threat if he wants to be.
There are plenty of things that Bailey can improve on offense, but if he can become a reliable cutter and off-ball mover, his scoring will be lethal. Unfortunately, as of right now, all that has been seen of him is sloppy isolations and inconsistent shot creation.
His strongest trait is his finishing. His slimmer frame enables him to snake through the defense and reach the paint at will. He may not have elite touch, but he has great offensive rebounding (2.1 per game) and puts back many of his missed shots. In the future, this should be the part of his game he relies on most.
Defensive Upside
Bailey’s monstrous wingspan and jumping ability make him a candidate for a great defender. Averaging 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steals in college, the potential has already been seen. Rutgers entrusted him with a significant amount of responsibility, often playing as the primary rim protector when playing with bench lineups.
He was pretty adept at the rim protector role, thanks to his quick feet and ability to jump with the best of them. However, his light weight did make it hard for him to box out the opposing teams’ big men. With a couple of extra pounds and NBA conditioning, Bailey has the potential to run the center at times of need.
Former Prospects with Similar Archetypes
Names that come to mind for most people are Paul George, Michael Porter Jr., Jabari Smith Jr., and Brandon Miller. While Bailey is not identical to any of these players, playing like Paul George should be the end goal for him.
He does not possess the playmaking or defensive capabilities that George does, but the scoring can be molded to be similar. George has an otherworldly smoothness and patience in his scoring that is impossible to find in people his height. Given time, and potentially being teammates with George, Bailey may become the elite scorer George once was.
How High Should He Go?
Though he does not have the talent or potential of Cooper Flagg or his teammate Dylan Harper, there is nobody else better than him after that. The Philadelphia 76ers are in a prime position to get him at third overall. This will certainly limit his day-one potential, making him the fourth or fifth option on the team.
The Sixers’ stars are aging, however, with Joel Embiid and Paul George nearing the end of their prime. This puts Bailey in place as the future star duo with Tyrese Maxey.
Although this may not be the best fit for Bailey, it is the most likely destination and places him in a position where he can learn a great deal.
