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The NFL Draft is creeping closer and closer as we’re just one day away, which means mock drafts are getting released by experts and analysts in bunches. This is my official first-round mock draft after hours and days of research, film study, and scouting. This is one of the most stacked classes in recent memory and in my opinion, there are multiple generational players that are going to be game changers. I try to keep mock trades to a minimum unless I really believe a certain trade will happen, because we can’t assume the draft order will stay the exact same throughout the night.
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC | 6’1, 218 lbs
Caleb Williams is number one on my Big Board, and this is the consensus for most people. Williams is a true generational talent with unparalleled playmaking and out-of-structure ability, a great arm, great running ability, and great accuracy. He truly is the full package, but he does have one slight flaw, sometimes he tries to do too much and play “hero ball” rather than taking what’s given, however this is very fixable. USC was disappointing, but it was due to their defensive struggles, while Caleb was exceptional. He has all the tools to be an immediate superstar, so Chicago, don’t mess this up.
2023 Stats: 12 G, 68.6% Cmp, 3,633 Pass Yds, 30 TD, 5 INT, 142 Rush Yds, 11 TD
1x Heisman, 1x AP College Football Player of the Year, 1x All-American, 1x Pac-12 OPOY, 1x All-Pac-12
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU | 6’4, 210 lbs
With Sam Howell proving he’s not the guy for Washington, they’ll go ahead and select Jayden Daniels. He is a true dual-threat QB, he can make any throw and is especially efficient throwing it deep. Daniels can run with the best of them, and no play is ever dead when he’s under center. The thing that concerns me is that he takes too many hard hits and it worries me if he can stay healthy, but if he can just learn to slide and stay away from hits, Washington will love him. Washington has a nice duo of McLaurin and Dotson at receiver, so that helps Daniels right off the rip.
2023 Stats: 12 G, 72.2% Cmp, 3,812 Pass Yds, 40 TD, 4 INT, 1,134 Rush Yds, 10 TD
1x Heisman, 1x AP College Football Player of the Year, 1x All-American, 1x SEC OPOY, 1x All-SEC
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, UNC | 6’4, 223 lbs
New England clearly needs a QB, and they’ll get their QB of the future right here at three. Maye has a huge frame, a cannon arm and can make plays out of nothing when needed. He has great upside, and if everything works out, he will be a star. Maye will sometimes throw some really bad picks, so he needs to be careful with his decision making, but he has great size, arm talent, and is pretty athletic, so I think New England selects Maye with ease here, no questions asked.
2023 Stats: 12 G, 63.3% Cmp, 3,608 Pass Yds, 24 TD, 9 INT, 449 Rush Yds, 9 TD
1x ACC Player of the Year, 2x All-ACC
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State | 6’4, 209 lbs
Marvin Harrison Jr is the best and most complete wide receiver we’ve seen in recent memory, he’s tall, athletic, fast, and can run any route. Every route he runs is so smooth whether it’s a simple underneath route or a deep route. Arizona needs to get Kyler Murray some weapons and despite the Cardinals terrible roster, Murray performed well after he came back from injury. Harrison has no clear weaknesses, but maybe working on his separation would help even though he can just catch the ball over any defender. This immediately makes the Cardinals offense so much better, which is a huge step forward in their team building process.
2023 Stats: 12 G, 67 Rec, 1,211 Rec Yds, 14 TD, 26 Rush Yds, 1 TD
1x Biletnikoff Award, 2x All-American, 2x All-Big Ten, 1x Big Ten OPOY
5. Minnesota Vikings (Mock Trade with Chargers, LAC gets Pick 11 + 23):
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan | 6’2, 219 lbs
I have Minnesota trading up to ensure they pick the QB they want, and the rumor is they want J.J. McCarthy from Michigan. They just signed Sam Darnold to a 1-year deal as a bridge QB, so this would be perfect for them to take a QB. McCarthy isn’t in my personal top 3 QB’s in this class, but I have to admit, he rarely makes mistakes and has the tools to manage an offense, but I don’t think he has the game-changing ability like Williams, Maye, or Daniels. The Vikings clearly have their eye on him and want to take him, even if he sits behind Darnold for a year.
2023 Stats: 15 G, 72.3% Cmp, 2,991 Pass Yds, 22 TD, 4 INT, 202 Rush Yds, 3 TD
2x All-Big Ten, 1x National Champion
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU | 6’0, 200 lbs
Now I understand the New York Giants need a QB, but as we all know, you don’t pick a QB just for the sake of picking a QB. I think the Giants will elect to get a stud skill-position player in Nabers, in preparation for them selecting a QB in the second round or next year. Nabers is an explosive athlete with elite after-the-catch ability, he can turn nothing into something in a heartbeat and is a great overall route runner. My only flaw regarding Nabers is his ability to make contested catches, he’s a decently sized receiver, so he should be able to handle smaller defenders, but he may need some time to work on the jump balls.
2023 Stats: 13 G, 89 Rec, 1,569 Rec Yds, 14 TD
1x All-American, 1x All-SEC
7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame | 6’9, 321 lbs
Joe Alt is an absolute monster, and is the clear best offensive lineman in a stacked class at the position. His mixture of athleticism and his huge frame make it a nightmare for defenders to get by him, but sometimes has balance issues. Tennessee would be a perfect spot for Alt to go, they just signed Tony Pollard so he would be huge for their run game, and they also signed Calvin Ridley, so Alt would be perfect in protecting Will Levis so he can make plays.
2x All-American
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama | 6’3, 247 lbs
Dallas Turner is an excellent speed rusher that any team would love to have, so Atlanta picks him up at eight. Turner has great athleticism for an edge, with an advanced bag of pass rush moves that will be great at the NFL level. He can be in the backfield in a heartbeat due to his very quick first step, I expect him to be a true pain for offenses to handle, however he needs to improve his strength as he’s heavily reliant on his speed and quickness.
2023 Stats: 14 G, 53 Tkl, 10.0 Sacks, 2 FF
1x All-American, 1x All-SEC, 1x SEC DPOY
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington | 6’3, 212 lbs
Rome Odunze is my personal WR2 in this class, and if he’s available at nine, no way Chicago will pass him up. I get it, they have Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore, but Allen is aging and his future in Chicago after one year is uncertain. Odunze is the best in the class at making contested catches, is a good route runner, and can go up and get any ball. He may not be as fast as Harrison or Nabers, but he’s certainly not slow by any means. Odunze to Chicago is almost too good to be true, he may very well go earlier.
2023 Stats: 15 G, 92 Rec, 1,640 Rec Yds, 16 TD
1x All-American, 2x All-Pac-12
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia | 6’3, 243 lbs
The Jets will pass on a lineman here because of their addition of Tyron Smith to protect Aaron Rodgers’ blindside. Brock Bowers is the pick here at ten considering their clear need for a good tight end. Bowers doesn’t really have any weaknesses, he’s strong, fast, and physical with the ability to catch any ball thrown in his area and elite ability after the catch. Bowers catching passes from Rodgers would be scary, considering I think Bowers will be in All-Pro conversations his rookie year, he’s that good.
2023 Stats: 10 G, 56 Rec, 714 Rec Yds, 6 TD
2x John Mackey Award, 3x All-American, 3x All-SEC, 2x National Champion
11. Los Angeles Chargers (via MIN): Taliese Fuaga, T, Oregon State | 6’6, 324 lbs
I know the Vikings-Chargers trade is very popular amongst mock drafts, and I went along with the trend, as it would benefit both teams. Taliese Fuaga is excellent in pass protection and this is what the Chargers need to give Justin Herbert time in the pocket. He’s very strong and can eliminate pass rush threats immediately. He struggles sometimes in the run game, but I expect him to work on that, so the Chargers will get a strong, versatile lineman to protect Justin Herbert long-term.
1x All-American, 2x All-Pac-12
12. Denver Broncos: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA | 6’5, 259 lbs
Laiatu Latu is incredibly talented, but the injury concerns with him are very real, especially considering he had a bad neck injury, and if it weren’t for that, he’d be going higher. He is long and strong, and a good athlete, which is promising in regards to possibly dropping into coverage. The Broncos would love Latu here because he has potential to line up at outside linebacker at times in their 3-4 defense. As long as Latu can stay on the field, there’s a good chance teams who picked before the Broncos will regret passing on him.
2023 Stats: 12 G, 49 Tkl, 21.5 TFL, 13.0 Sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF
1x Ted Hendricks Award, 1x Pat Tillman DPOY, 1x All-American, 2x All-Pac-12
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington | 6’2, 216 lbs
Many believe the Washington QB will fall to the second round, but lately he seems to be trending to go in the first round due to his ability to make any throw imaginable. Penix has dealt with many injuries in college so that’s a concern because he doesn’t move around much in the pocket. He also needs a clean pocket to be at his best. Las Vegas would be great for Penix as he’d be throwing to superstar receiver DaVante Adams, who many people think is a perfect comparison for Penix’s college teammate, Rome Odunze.
2023 Stats: 15 G, 65.4% Cmp, 4,903 Pass Yds, 36 TD, 11 INT, 3 Rush TD
1x All-American, 2x All-Pac-12
14. New Orleans Saints: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State | 6’6, 312 lbs
This pick may favor a skill position guy like Brian Thomas Jr, but I think that would be a bit too early, and New Orleans can address receiver later. They need a guy like Fashanu to beef up their O-Line as he’s got great size and athleticism to hold off defenders in the run game and in passing scenarios. He’s got some things to work on however, his balance being the main thing, as he seemed a bit clumsy at times. Fashanu has all the tools to be great though, so New Orleans picks him up here.
1x All-American, 2x All-Big Ten
15. Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo | 6’0, 195 lbs
Indianapolis has a glaring need for a corner, and Quinyon Mitchell will be the first one off the board. I have Indianapolis selecting Quinyon Mitchell here considering they need someone reliable to guard the top wide receivers in the NFL. Mitchell is terrific at closing in on receivers and making plays on the ball and is good for run-support despite sometimes leading with his head while tackling. Mitchell also shined at the Senior Bowl and tested well at the NFL Combine.
2023 Stats: 13 G, 41 Tkl, 1 INT, 18 PD
2x All-MAC
16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington | 6’4, 317 lbs
Troy Fautanu is listed as a tackle, but I think he’ll transition to guard due to his incredible versatility. Fautanu isn’t a huge guy in comparison to other linemen, but boy is he talented. Fautanu is strong, aggressive, agile, and quick. Seattle needs line help, and it seems like that’s the way they will go. His footwork is excellent as well.
2x All-Pac-12
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama | 6’0, 189 lbs
Terrion Arnold is a good athlete and a versatile corner that Jacksonville would love at this pick. Arnold can line up well in man or zone sets as he played most of his snaps on the outside, but he showed he’s very capable in the slot too. I will say man coverage seems to be more of his strength as he’s comfortable in match press scenarios. Jacksonville has been in need of a defensive back for a while now, and this would be a great pick to improve their defense.
2023 Stats: 14 G, 63 Tkl, 5 INT, 12 PD
1x All-American, 1x All-SEC
18. Cincinnati Bengals: JC Latham, OT, Alabama | 6’6, 342 lbs
Let’s be honest, Trent Brown is a rental for one year to protect Joe Burrow, and they need to protect him long-term considering Burrow has already had multiple season-ending injuries. Latham is incredibly powerful and is a pancake machine and has good balance even when he’s in a bad position. He’s great with his hands and is able to completely destroy reps from pass rushers which is a great sign. Like Fuaga, he struggles at times in the run game, but he can work on it, this would be a huge pickup for Cincinnati.
1x All-SEC
19. Los Angeles Rams: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas | 6’0, 297 lbs
Byron Murphy II just got into some trouble with the law, which is one of the reasons I have him falling to 19. Murphy is strong and explosive despite him not being ideal size for an interior lineman, but I don’t see that being much of a problem for him in the NFL. The Rams would get a great player on the defensive line to power through the middle of opposing lines. At the very least I envision Murphy being a rotational tackle who plays valuable snaps.
2023 Stats: 14 G, 29 Tkl, 8.5 TFL, 5.0 Sacks
1x Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year, 1x All-Big 12
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa | 6’0, 203 lbs
Cooper DeJean is one of the most interesting players in this class, as there’s questions to be answered about if he’ll play corner, safety, or both in the NFL. Pittsburgh loves building their defense, so DeJean is the pick. Immediately on the tape you’ll notice that DeJean is excellent in zone coverage with a high football IQ as he knows how to read routes well. He will likely play best as a safety or slot corner as he had some struggles on the outside especially against vertical threats. DeJean’s versatility is why he’s so good as he has potential to line up in the slot or even in the box when playing safety, and don’t forget he’s an excellent punt returner.
2023 Stats: 10 G, 41 Tkl, 2 INT, 5 PD
1x Tatum-Woodson Defensive Back of the Year, 1x All-American, 2x All-Big Ten
21. Miami Dolphins: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State | 6’4, 254 lbs
Jared Verse is a game wrecker, and he showed us that at Florida State. He’s very well rounded and has a fantastic mix of speed and power. He has a huge frame but he can also beat tackles with his speed which is a scary sight to see. Miami needs to beef their defensive line back up after losing Christian Wilkins to free agency, and losing Jaelan Phillips to a late-season injury. Miami should jump on this pick immediately if Verse is still available.
2023 Stats: 13 G, 41 Tkl, 12.5 TFL, 9.0 Sacks, 1 FF
2x All-American, 2x All-ACC
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson | 6’1, 173 lbs
Nate Wiggins is incredibly fast, he ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at the combine. He has the elite speed to keep up with the fastest receivers in the NFL, which is a big plus. He has good height and has elite ball skills, but he is very skinny. Wiggins needs to add weight or else he’ll struggle to guard bigger receivers and get bulldozed in the run game. Philly would love to add a corner for the future now that it seems Darius Slay is finally regressing.
2023 Stats: 10 G, 29 Tkl, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 TD
1x All-ACC
23: Los Angeles Chargers (via MIN): Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU | 6’3, 209 lbs
L.A. needs a receiver badly now that they got rid of all of Justin Herbert’s weapons, so they go with Brian Thomas Jr. Other teams have other holes to fill, so I think L.A. can get a guy like Thomas at 23. Thomas is tall, fast, and athletic, a great combination of skills for a receiver who can make a big play happen at any moment. On top of being a tall and fast end zone threat, he is a good overall route runner. I would not be surprised if someone trades up for Thomas.
2023 Stats: 13 G, 68 Rec, 1,177 Rec Yds, 17 TD
1x All-SEC
24. Dallas Cowboys: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia | 6’8, 340 lbs
The Dallas Cowboys lost Tyron Smith in the offseason, which is a huge loss for them, so they need a replacement, and Amarius Mims is that guy. Mims is absolutely enormous with incredible strength to hold off defenders from getting into the backfield. He’s also an underrated athlete given his size, but had some problems with his leverage and staying balanced when blocking. Mims is also less experienced that other tackles in this class, having only started for a year.
2x National Champion
25. Green Bay Packers: Graham Barton, C, Duke | 6’5, 313 lbs
Graham Barton can truly line up at any position on the offensive line, and this is perfect for the Packers because they need a lineman. He’s strong and quick, he can hold off defenders with the best of them and is also good in the run game as he secures his blocks. He is listed as a center, but I think he may work best as a guard, either way he’ll be great, and he would be a great fit for Green Bay at either position, guard or center.
1x All-American, 2x All-ACC
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State | 6’3, 254 lbs
Chop Robinson is a fantastic speed rusher as he overwhelms linemen with his speed, explosiveness, and football IQ. Tampa Bay is in desperate need of a pass rusher to help their defense get stops, and Robinson can do that as he’s so advanced with his skills. He isn’t great in the run game so he’ll have to work on that if he wants to play a lot of snaps, but even if he doesn’t, he can still be a very valuable asset on passing downs.
2023 Stats: 10 G, 15 Tkl, 7.5 TFL, 4.0 Sacks, 2 FF
1x All-Big Ten
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois | 6’2, 304 lbs
The Arizona Cardinals need a defensive lineman as much as anyone else in this draft, so I have them grabbing the talented Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton from Illinois. He has great pass rushing technique and uses many moves to get into the backfield. Newton isn’t great in the run game, but when he’s at his best, he’s an absolute game changer who performs extremely well in the clutch, always making big plays. Newton immediately helps Arizona’s terrible defense.
2023 Stats: 12 G, 52 Tkl, 8.5 TFL, 7.5 Sacks, 1 FF
Nagurski-Woodson DPOY, Smith-Brown Defensive Lineman of the Year, 1x All-American, 2x All-Big Ten
28. Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas | 6’2, 205 lbs
Stefon Diggs is no longer on the Buffalo Bills, and that means they need a receiver for Josh Allen as soon as possible. Adonai Mitchell is a good sized receiver who can go up and get the deep balls, which would be great for Josh Allen, but he does need to work on his short routes a little bit. He also was a bit inconsistent this season but that’s not something to worry about too much. Buffalo needs a weapon and Mitchell is one of their best options around this area.
2023 Stats: 14 G, 55 Rec, 845 Rec Yds, 11 TD
1x All-Big 12
29. Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama | 5’11, 199 lbs
Detroit needs a cornerback badly, so they take Kool-Aid McKinstry here. Before this season, mock drafts had McKinstry going in the top 15, but the Jones fracture he had in his foot concerns a lot of teams, but still see him as a worthy first rounder. McKinstry is a good athlete and is not afraid to be physical, so let’s hope he heals properly and doesn’t continue to deal with injuries. McKinstry may not have elite speed, but he’s athletic and very smart, which goes a long way. A young team like Detroit would be lucky to land him.
2023 Stats: 14 G, 32 Tkl, 0 INT, 7 PD
1x All-American, 2x All-SEC
30. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma | 6’8, 322 lbs
Baltimore’s main concern is keeping their MVP QB Lamar Jackson healthy, and Tyler Guyton would be the smart pick here as a huge piece for the trenches. He moves incredibly well for his size and as expected he has great length and strength to shut down defenders. Guyton has a few technique issues but I think he can fix those relatively quickly. Some think Baltimore should build up their defense even more with this pick but the right way to go is protecting Lamar Jackson.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon | 6’3, 328 lbs
The San Francisco 49ers are filled with All-Pro and Pro Bowl caliber players, but outside of Trent Williams, they need some help on that offensive line, so I have them taking Jackson Powers-Johnson from Oregon. He’s got good size for a center and is quite strong, has a great motor, and is very agile. He is a little bit inexperienced as he’s only been a starter for a year which always catches my eye, but all things considered, if I was John Lynch, I’d pull the trigger.
1x All-American, 1x All-Pac-12
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas | 5’11, 165 lbs
The reigning Super Bowl Champions need another weapon at receiver outside of Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy would be just that. Worthy ran a 4.21 40-yard dash, breaking the NFL Combine record, and his blazing speed can help open up an offense. Worthy is a good route runner and controls his body well, but he is unbelievably skinny, his legs are like twigs and it’s scary to think about him taking hits to his legs. This could work well for the Chiefs and as long as he doesn’t get injured, he’d be able to make Patrick Mahomes’ life a little bit easier.
2023 Stats: 14 G, 75 Rec, 1,014 Rec Yds, 5 TD
3x All-Big 12
