2022-23 Fantasy Football RB Tier List

Tier 1 (Top 5 Total Point Upside)

1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Austin Ekeler

These are the top three fantasy running backs going into the season. They all have extremely high floors thanks to their immense volume, dominant snap shares and top tier talent at their position.

Jonathan Taylor feels like the safest pick in the draft. He scored 18+ PPR points in 13 of 17 games last year, with only two games under double digit point totals. Taylor also had double digit carries in every game last season, averaging just under 20 carries per game. With Matt Ryan at quarterback now, the Colts might throw more, but not enough to eat into Taylor’s elite offensive workload. As long as Taylor keeps his goal line usage (92 RZ touches), he’ll be a consistent RB1.

McCaffrey offers the most upside of this elite group, but probably the most downside too. When healthy, McCaffrey offers the most upside of any player in fantasy due to his combination of rushing and receiving volume that is unmatched by any other player in the league. However, he’s only played in 7 full games since the end of his 2019 RB #1 finish where he averaged 29.3 PPR points per game. With an upgrade at the quarterback spot with Baker Mayfield, as long as McCaffrey stays healthy, he has a very viable path back to his RB #1 numbers from three seasons ago.

Austin Ekeler seems to be the balance in between these two. He plays in an elite offense, offers both rushing and receiving upside (206 carries + 94 targets in 2021) but could see a little less volume this upcoming season. This is because Ekeler himself has been vocal about wanting to cut down his workload this season to make sure he stays fresh for the playoffs. Ekeler is also most likely going to see a regression in the touchdown department, where he scored 20 (!) total touchdowns last season. Even with those factors, Ekeler should still be viewed as an elite fantasy option at the running back position.

Tier 2 (Set and Forget RB1s)

4. Dalvin Cook
5. D’Andre Swift
6. Joe Mixon
7. Derrick Henry
8. Aaron Jones
9. Najee Harris

In this tier of running backs, we have RBs who have proven capable in finishing top-five at their position in fantasy points (Henry, Cook, Mixon and Jones) and a couple of up-and-comers with serious potential (Swift and Harris).

Cook and Mixon are in a very similar territory to Ekeler, with a few key differences that knock them down a tier. With Cook, we can see that his injuries and age are starting to take a toll on his talent. His efficiency stats have gone down year over year since 2019, however that could change in a new offensive system from new head coach Kevin O’Connell.

Cook could be put in better positions to make big plays, especially in the passing game. Another thing Cook has going for him is positive touchdown regression. He scored 30 total touchdowns during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, but only 6 last season. I think Cook has at least one more RB1-type season in him, and this new offensive scheme should be able to help him get there.

With Mixon, he seems to fall below where he should every year due to his name value. He has never stood out as one of the best running backs in the league, but he had his best fantasy season of his career last year (RB #5 overall with 18 PPR points per game). A lot of Mixon’s success last season came because of his career high 16 total touchdowns last season.

That probably isn’t sustainable, like Ekeler’s touchdown volume, but he can easily get to double digits in that category within Cincinnati’s rapidly improving offense. With the Bengals’ upgrades along the offensive line and defenses having to worry about Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase first and foremost, Mixon has another shot at top-5 RB upside.

Superstar running back Derrick Henry falls just below those two in my rankings due to two factors. First, following Henry’s first major injury at the age of 28, I’m not sure he’ll be as effective going forward, even with his historic volume. He was on pace for 465 (!) carries before his injury last season, which would’ve been the most ever in a season by almost 50 carries. Even taking out week 17, Henry still would’ve beaten the previous single-season carry record. The second factor is his lack of receptions over his career. In PPR leagues, running backs who catch the ball are immediately more valuable than almost any running back who don’t.

Henry has bucked those trends every year of his career due to his elite rushing workload and touchdown output, but Tennessee no longer has the threat of AJ Brown down field, which will help defenses further commit to stopping Henry on the ground. While Henry’s volume could be historic once again, I don’t view Henry as a must have fantasy player according to his ADP (8^th overall).

Swift and Harris are the young guns in this tier, with both offering massive workload upside in mediocre offenses. I’m especially high on Swift, mainly because I’m higher on the Lions than most. He’s their best offensive player and head coach Dan Campbell will most likely be heavily reliant on him throughout the season. Swift is also one of the better pass catching backs in the league, catching 108 passes in his first two years in the NFL. Couple those things with the fact that the Lions could quietly have one of the best offensive lines in football next year, and Swift has elite upside at the position with check down machine Jared Goff at quarterback.

Najee Harris could get more total volume than any running back in this tier if we’re being honest. He finished with 381 total touches as a rookie last season, which led the entire league. However, his efficiency was bad with that historic workload. He averaged 3.9 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per touch. I’m not sold on Harris’ talent, and despite an “upgrade” at quarterback, he probably won’t get that type of receiving workload again since both Trubisky’s and Pickett’s arms are able to get the ball past the line of scrimmage.

All those things, plus the fact that Pittsburgh did barely anything to upgrade their bad offensive line, and it could be another inefficient season for the former first round pick. However, I do view Harris as one of the safer running backs in fantasy due to his projected workload. Even with a downtick in receiving, Harris should still close in on 300 carries again, which isn’t something most running backs can say.

The last guy in this tier is someone I’m really excited about. With Davante Adams now in Vegas, Aaron Jones should become one of Aaron Rodgers’ most reliable targets in the passing game. He has practically no one competing for targets with him, with Allen Lazard projecting to be the teams’ primary receiving threat. That isn’t very inspiring. Other than possibly getting a top-3 target share amongst running backs, Jones is an explosive runner, someone who is a threat to take any opportunity all the way to the end zone.

Probably the biggest concern for Jones is how much of the offense AJ Dillon takes from him. Dillon had 221 total touches (187 carries + 34 catches) last season for the Packers, and that number might climb with Dillon being the second best skill player for the Packers this season. He was also the running back that Green Bay used more in the red zone last season, although not by as many carries as some people think. So, while Aaron Jones might have limited touchdown upside, I think he is a surefire bet to finish as a top-10 RB this season in PPR formats with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.

Tier 3 (Low-end RB1s with “Set and Forget” Upside)

10. Leonard Fournette
11. James Conner

I used to have a few others in this tier, but both D’Andre Swift and Aaron Jones moved up a tier due to their situations and PPR upside. While both Fournette and Conner will have good-to-great workloads in high-flying offenses, I don’t think either of them are as talented as the guys who got bumped up a tier.

Fournette took the league by surprise last year with the Bucs, taking on the bell cow role for one of the best offenses in football. While he only had 180 carries, he was third at the position in targets with 84. Even though Tampa Bay was second to last in team rushing attempts last season, I have a feeling that won’t be the case this year.

Without Chris Godwin for at least the beginning of the season, and Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski both no longer with the team, the Bucs may be inclined to lean on Fournette even more this season, in both the running game and the passing game. Also, the team’s second leading rusher Ronald Jones II is now a Chief, leaving potentially more meat on the bone for the former LSU standout.

It’s pretty much the same case for James Conner in Arizona as well. With DeAndre Hopkins suspended the first half of the year, Kyler’s #1 wide receiver will be college teammate Marquise Brown. While he should have a great year with the Cardinals himself, this will also leave more targets for other members of Arizona’s offense, which leaves Conner primed for more of a receiving role than he had last year.

Another reason he should have more of a bell cow role is that 3^rd down specialist Chase Edmonds took his talents to South Beach. While the Cardinals did draft Keaontay Ingram in the sixth round of this year’s draft and signed Darrel Williams, I don’t think either of them will significantly cut into Conner’s workload. His uptick in opportunity should help offset the fact that Conner is most likely due for touchdown regression after scoring the third most touchdowns by a running back last season with 18.

Tier 4 (Alvin Kamara)

12. Alvin Kamara

Kamara gets his own tier here solely because of the potential 6-game suspension he could face following felony battery charges from an incident in Las Vegas during Pro Bowl weekend. We know who Kamara is when he is on the field: one of the best dual threat running backs in the league, who can turn any play into a touchdown. I will say that since Drew Brees retired, his receiving upside has significantly diminished, due to the same reasons I believe Najee’s receiving upside won’t be as high as last season. Plus, Kamara just had his first 200+ carry season last year (240 carries), and he only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Losing former pro bowl left tackle Terron Armstead in free agency also hurts the Saints’ rushing upside. Even if Kamara isn’t suspended, I’m still skeptical about his fantasy output due to his football situation. Bake in the fact that he COULD be out for almost half the season and you have to draft him in the first three rounds of your draft, and I’m most likely out on Kamara, despite his immense talent.

Tier 5 (High-end RB2s with RB1 Upside)

13. Travis Etienne Jr.
14. Saquon Barkley
15. Nick Chubb
16. Cam Akers

Say you go wide receiver-wide receiver with your first two picks. These are the guys I’m targeting to be my first running back. They’ve all showed they are extremely talented at the running back position, whether that be in the NFL (Saquon, Chubb and Akers) or in college (Etienne Jr.). Even though I have these guys in the same tier, they are all in different situations.

Travis Etienne Jr. obviously missed all of his rookie season last season due to a Lisfranc injury. All the reports I’m seeing, and hearing are that Etienne will be 100% ready for training camp and his first NFL season. The same can’t be said about teammate James Robinson, who suffered an Achilles tear in December of last season. If Etienne can take on a full workload right from the start next to college teammate and former #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, we could see the next PPR star running back.

Going back to the duos last two seasons together at Clemson, Etienne caught 85 passes for 1,020 yards and 6 touchdowns from Lawrence. Last season for the Jaguars, Lawrence checked down an NFL-high 11.3% of his drop backs. If all those things keep pace, along with Jacksonville’s upgrades along the offensive line, Etienne could be primed for a massive season.

Now, next we have Saquon Barkley, someone that has been talked about as one of the best running backs in football before. However, injuries and a poorly managed organization have completely derailed Saquon’s career trajectory. With new head coach Brian Daboll in town, there’s finally some reason for optimism for Giants fans to get excited about this team. New York nailed the draft as well, and they especially did the offense a favor, getting Evan Neal with the 7^th overall selection. This should help boost the offensive line as a whole, which should help Saquon find some actual holes to get through.

As the Giants best and primary playmaker on offense, he’ll have plenty of opportunity to show the league just how good of a running back he really is. Even if Daboll tries to throw the ball more (Buffalo was 5^th in total pass attempts last season), Saquon already has one 90+ catch season in the NFL, and it was his rookie year. While the injury risk is evident, all these running backs miss time one way or another and there really isn’t a way to predict when or how they happen. So, give me the guy with a three-down workload who’s already flashed immense upside before.

Nick Chubb is a unique case of having “best running back in the league” talent, but sometimes doesn’t even get the majority of backfield touches on his own team. It isn’t because of anything Nick Chubb does though, he just happens to be a part of the most loaded running back room in the league with Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson. I think it could be a little different this year, at least until Deshaun Watson starts for the Browns. With Brissett as the starter until then, I have a feeling Kevin Stefanksi will try to lean on his best player and run the ball even more so than they have in the past.

Even with losing starting center JC Tretter, the Browns will still have one of the better offensive lines in football next year in an offense that should run the ball more than almost anyone in the league, especially to start the season. And although Chubb might not be a factor in the receiving game due to his teammates in the running back room, that’s not to say he can’t do it if given the opportunity.

At first, I had Chubb ending this tier. I’ll probably fluctuate on this next player all the way until my drafts are done, but for now I’m going to bet on Cam Akers’ talent to beat out his injury concerns. Akers is in an elite offense that has produced fantasy stardom in the past (Todd Gurley) and, to me, he clearly has the type of talent to produce good-to-great fantasy numbers in his own right. Before tearing his Achilles prior to the start of last season, Akers was viewed as a first-round pick in fantasy, largely because of his end to the 2020 season.

Over Akers’ last six games of the 2020 season, he had 132 carries for 561 yards and 3 touchdowns. The usage and burst he displayed in those games were the eye openers for football fans, and in the Rams’ offense people only viewed that production go up in the following year. Then he miraculously came back for the Rams in the playoffs last season but looked like a shell of himself. Now with a full offseason to recover, I think Akers can pick up where he left off.

Tier 6 (RB2s with RB1 Upside)

17. Javonte Williams
18. Breece Hall
19. David Montgomery
20. JK Dobbins
21. Kareem Hunt

This is the last tier I try to snag my RB2 in before I see a significant drop off in fantasy production. I think this tier contains the last potential RB1s that carry RB2 standalone value as is. The guy in this tier that I think carries the most upside is Javonte Williams.

Last season as a rookie he totaled 246 touches (203 carries + 43 catches) for 1,219 yards and 7 touchdowns last year alongside Melvin Gordon. There are two sides to viewing those touches. The positive side was that they were highly efficient. Williams averaged 5 yards per touch, good for eighth in the league. The negative side is that they were only 50% of the possible touches in the Broncos’ offense.

While I don’t think that Melvin Gordon is just going to give up those touches, I do think there’s a chance that it might be more of a 60-40 split in favor of Javonte with how produced as a rookie and the draft capital they invested in him. The talents already there, he just needs some more opportunity to be fully unleashed.

The Jets went all-in for Zach Wilson in this year’s draft, taking Garrett Wilson in the first round to pair with Elijah Moore, and making Breece Hall the first running back selected with their second-round pick. He was a monster at Iowa State during his sophomore and junior years, piling up 46 total touchdowns and 3,526 yards from scrimmage.

Now, the Jets took Michael Carter in the fourth round in 2021’s draft, and he looked good as a rookie. However, I think Breece Hall will take over this backfield sooner rather than later, maybe not completely, but to the point where he’ll have enough opportunity to shine. With his talent, it’s another version of he has the talent, it’s just a question of what his level of opportunity will be AND how much upside he has within a questionable offense.

David Montgomery is a little different than the guys before him, in the sense that he already has the volume, he’s just an average running back. He’s also never been put in a situation where he had a good quarterback and good offensive line play. While I think the first of those things might change this season with Justin Fields’ development taking a step forward, the offensive line will still be in consideration for one of the worst lines in football. But even Fields’ development might hurt Montgomery.

There’s a chance Fields cuts into some of the rushing volume with his legs plus mobile quarterbacks don’t check down nearly as much as pocket passers. Both those things run the risk of eating into David Montgomery’s volume, which has become the main reason to draft him. Montgomery feels like the safest running back in this tier, but I’d prefer every running back in this tier over him, and potentially one from the tier below.

JK Dobbins is another back that’s upside is somewhat capped by having maybe the best rushing quarterback ever. Another reason to maybe avoid drafting him is the fact he missed all last season with a torn ACL, and he has now been placed on the PUP list prior to the beginning of training camp. However, he looked extremely effective during his rookie campaign, averaging 6 yards per carry on 134 carries.

Dobbins could also be entering back into the more run-heavy Ravens this year, while they had to throw the ball more last season as a result of the injuries sustained by their backfield. At the end of the day, like I am with Cam Akers, I’m betting on the talent to trump the injury concerns, and he’s in a system that he’s been great in before.

Speaking of run-heavy offensive systems, the last running back in this tier is another guy who benefits from playing in one. Kareem Hunt’s fantasy value functions a lot of the same ways that Javonte Williams’ does. He has all the talent in the world (two top-10 fantasy finishes in his career), but is behind possibly the best running back in fantasy in Nick Chubb. Despite what some people think, the split between Chubb and Hunt in terms of opportunity is pretty similar to the Williams and Gordon split in Denver. The one big difference is that Hunt has virtually the entire passing game to himself and Cleveland went with him in a lot of goal line situations and two-minute drills.

Those are the high value touches you want your fantasy running backs to have access to. Once Deshaun Watson takes the field, he’ll also be a part of a good offense with a great offensive line in a run-friendly scheme. In the meantime, though, he’ll still be heavily relied upon as one of the few proven playmakers on Cleveland’s offense.

Tier 7 (Last Potential Workhorses)

22. Josh Jacobs
23. Zeke Elliott
24. Elijah Mitchell
25. Rashaad Penny
26. Cordarrelle Patterson
27. Antonio Gibson
28. Devin Singletary

I won’t spend too many words on this tier since I really hope to have my running backs figured out by this point in the draft, but there are a few names that standout to me, Josh Jacobs being the obvious one. Jacobs is the one back in this tier that I would potentially take over David Montgomery, I just don’t have any idea of what his usage is going to be like. The Raiders had one of the splashiest offseasons, trading for Davante Adams, hiring Josh McDaniels as their new head coach and signing Chandler Jones to pair with Maxx Crosby on the defensive side of the ball. Only the first two moves matter from a fantasy perspective, and both of them could significantly influence the amount Vegas runs the ball.

McDaniels normally features pass catching running backs as prominent players in his offenses, something Jacobs hasn’t done very well in his career. This could mean we see more Kenyan Drake than we did with Jon Gruden as head coach. All these things make me want to view him as a touchdown dependent RB2, but if he sees the full workload in a revamped Raiders’ offense, he has potential RB1 upside.

Zeke is someone I will not be drafting this year. I think that he’s already finished his prime, despite what his age (27) and contract (set to make $12.4M this season) might suggest. I’ve also been a big fan of his backup Tony Pollard ever since he was drafted out of Memphis in 2019. I think this is the year that Dallas sees too much downside starting Zeke over Pollard from a talent standpoint, no matter what their contracts say. The only reason I have Zeke this high is because I still see a path to the Cowboys refusing to acknowledge anything other than the amount of money he is owed, which means he should still be the starter. Projected volume and goal line usage alone will most likely keep him in the RB2 mix this season.

The next two running backs I have in this tier follow the same type of attributes I laid out for Zeke other than the declining talent part. Elijah Mitchell was the rare bell cow back coming out of Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system that normally employs multiple running backs. He had five games with at least 20 carries and four more with at least 17 carries. He only played in 11 total games as a rookie.

That type of volume behind a good offensive line and in a great scheme could create an RB1 in terms of fantasy value. But with mobile quarterback Trey Lance projected to be the starter next season and presumably better health for the rest of the 49ers’ backfield, I don’t know how much longer Mitchell will have that type of volume. Not to mention he had injury issues himself as well throughout all last season.

Rashaad Penny finally showed some promise after being drafted in the first round in 2018. A lot of it had to do with the fact he was finally healthy and Chris Carson, the usual starter, wasn’t. Throughout the last five games of the regular season, Penny went on a tear: 92 carries for 667 yards and 6 touchdowns. In four of those games, Penny had over 135 yards.

Now, Penny did have the help of one of the easiest schedules down the stretch for running backs, but those numbers aren’t just the result of easy matchups. Penny just flashed some serious upside, enough for the Seahawks to re-sign him to a one-year deal. While Seattle did go out and draft Ken Walker III in the second round, I think this backfield, at least to begin the year, will be Penny’s to lose.

One of the weirder things to happen last season was the Cordarrelle Patterson renaissance. Making the official change to the running back position only seemed to give Patterson, an explosive kick returner, more opportunities to create chunk plays. The Falcons are probably going to be among the league’s worst teams again this season, and they did next to nothing to give Patterson competition for touches in the backfield.

In fact, other than drafting Tyler Allgeier in the fifth round of this year’s draft, they let Mike Davis walk in free agency, leaving probably even less competition than last year. While Patterson will get the touches, they will be in a bad offense that won’t score a lot AND teams will have played Patterson the running back now. If he’s no longer a “surprise threat” for the Falcons, how effective can he truly be, especially at the age of 31.

I was so pumped about Antonio Gibson last year after all the reports that Washington was going to use him like Christian McCaffrey. Then it never happened, and he settled into the touchdown dependent RB2 range. Nevertheless, I think Gibson could be a good bounce back candidate if they give him the opportunity or injury luck breaks his way. With the team bringing back J.D. McKissic and drafting Brian Robinson though, it doesn’t seem like Washington will give him that lucrative workload.

Also, with Carson Wentz now in as the quarterback of the Commanders and the drafting of Jahan Dotson at #16 overall, it seems like Washington might throw the ball a bit more, which might put McKissic on the field even more. Maybe one day the stars will align for Gibson, but it most likely isn’t this year.

I wasn’t sure if I wanted to include Devin Singletary in this tier or not, but the way he performed at the end of last season shows he might go into the year as Buffalo’s lead back. During the last four weeks of the regular season, Singletary had 76 carries for 323 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those aren’t mind-blowing numbers, but they’re better than anything else Buffalo has had in recent years. He’s also been in the system for a few years now and is a good enough pass catching back to stay on the field during third downs. The drafting of James Cook in the second round does definitely concern me, but probably not for the beginning of the season. If Singletary can build on the end of his season last year, he could be the full-time starter for the Buffalo Bills this year, which is going to be one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL.

Tier 8 (RBs with Questions Regarding Role)

29. Tony Pollard
30. J. Dillon
31. James Robinson
32. Chase Edmonds
33. Miles Sanders
34. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
35. Damien Harris

I’m not the biggest fan of this tier, in terms of running backs I would actually draft. That being said, the first two guys in this tier I am extremely high on, and I thought about moving them both even higher. However, I don’t think they can become workhorses until the player above them in the depth chart shows significant decline or gets hurt.

In Tony Pollard’s case, Zeke has already shown signs of decline over the past few years, and part of it was due to the amount of injuries he’s sustained. Now, Pollard has only started in two games thus far in his career, both of which came in 2020, and in only one of them was Zeke inactive. In that singular start versus the 49ers, Pollard had 12 carries for 69 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 6 catches on 9 targets for 63 yards.

Pollard has shown that he can get the job done whenever he’s given the chance, whether that be in the running game or the receiving game. I’ve been a Pollard fan ever since he came out of Memphis, and he’s gone on to being one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL, albeit on a small sample size. Here’s a list of rushing efficiency stats that show just how good Pollard actually was last season alone, when he had career highs in both carries and catches. Pollard was second in the NFL in yards per touch (6.2), third in breakaway run rate (carries of 15 yards or more) at 8.5%, and he was fifth in juke rate (evaded tackles per rush) at almost 35%. Pollard is one of the most efficient and effective running backs in the league. He just needs more of an opportunity to show it.

The second running back in this tier I really like is A.J. Dillon. Dillon saw a massive usage bump last season after the Packers moved on from Jamaal Williams and he didn’t disappoint. Like Pollard, Dillon is playing as the RB2 in his own offense behind Aaron Jones. Unlike Pollard, Jones hasn’t shown any decline like Zeke has. This means it will be a lot tougher for Dillon to get workhorse status, unless Jones goes down with an injury.

He good thing with Dillon however, is his standalone value is higher than Pollard’s. Green Bay used Dillon as their red zone running back more so than Jones last season, even when both were healthy. Another thing to like about him is with Davante Adams no longer a Packer, Jones and Dillon are the Packers’ top two offensive skill players. This makes me think we will see both of them on the field together a lot more than we’ve seen in the past. We could easily see both Jones and Dillon eclipse 200 touches and maybe even double-digit touchdowns.

James Robinson wasn’t initially this high on my list, since there weren’t many positive reports surrounding his recovery from a torn Achilles he suffered in December. However, now it seems like he won’t be going on the PUP list (physically unable to perform) to start the season, and Robinson could garner some early down work even with Etienne Jr. back in the picture. The best part about Robinson is that we’ve seen him produce in a bad Jacksonville offense before.

His rookie year, Robinson came out of nowhere to being the RB5 on the year, averaging almost 18 fantasy points per game. Bear in mind that Robinson went undrafted and wasn’t likely to make Jacksonville’s roster when he signed with them. I believe in Robinson’s talent, which is evident by his 79 evaded tackles from his rookie season, which ranked fifth in the league. If he proves to have a hold on the Jaguars’ early downs, not only does it boost Robinson’s value, but it will definitely affect my feelings towards Etienne Jr.’s fantasy outlook.

Miami’s backfield is a little bit of a mystery especially with Raheem Mostert reportedly ahead of rehab schedule. Chase Edmonds is the one guy in their running back room that feels like a safe bet for an immediate workload. Plus, most of that work should come in the way of catches, which are much more valuable in PPR formats than carries.

While quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was second worst in terms of check down rate over the last two seasons, I expect that rating to go up a little bit with new head coach Mike McDaniel leading the offense. His yards per attempt last season ranked 23^rd amongst quarterbacks at 6.8, leaving me to believe there is a chance Chase Edmonds can still catch a decent amount of passes from Tua.

Another reason to believe that is because his 7.2 yards per reception ranked inside the top 20 of running backs, and Edmonds ran a route on almost half or Arizona’s passing plays last season, also ranking inside the top 20 for running backs. Add in the fact that Miami made Edmonds the 16^th highest paid running back in terms of average annual value, and it’s clear to me that they will give Edmonds a decent enough workload to at least average double-digit fantasy points per game.

If only Miles Sanders could stay healthy and catch a football. If those things ever became true, Sanders would be Philadelphia’s bona fide workhorse running back. Since neither of them ARE true, he ranks among the running backs that have elite efficiency stats but can’t seem to lock down a true role in his offense. This is a shame mainly because Philly ran the ball the second most of any team last season, and they did so behind the league’s best offensive line.

Other than not being able to catch or stay healthy, Sanders also doesn’t get the goal line carries, where quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Jordan Howard both outpaced Sanders in red zone carries. Not to mention Boston Scott, another Eagles’ running back, finished with one fewer red zone carry than Sanders’ 20. Even as the starting running back on an elite rushing team, the only real optimistic fantasy outlook for Sanders feels like a boom or bust RB2 due to his ability to break some long touchdown runs.

The next guy is the epitome of a running back with questions regarding his role in the offense. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a pretty big letdown, being the starting running back for the Kansas City Chiefs ever since they took him in the first round of the 2020 draft. Some of the letdown has been because of injuries as he’s only played in 23 of the teams’ 33 regular season games. However, the biggest letdown from Clyde’s early career has just been his talent.

Being the starting running back in one of the NFL’s premier offenses normally grants a lot of opportunities, especially when you can catch the ball. Even though Edwards-Helaire flashed as a rookie, his statistics went down in every category other than touchdowns last season, which only increased from five to six. While Edwards-Helaire could still break out (still only his third NFL season), the Chiefs signed Ronald Jones II in the offseason, who could end up taking Darrel Williams’ role as the goal line back, since he went to the Cardinals this offseason.

With New England’s offense on the rise with Mac Jones going into his second season as quarterback, there is most likely going to be more touchdowns scored. Damien Harris was a touchdown machine last year for the Pats, in large part due to his 44 red zone carries, which ranked fifth in the league. His 15 rushing touchdowns were tied for second in the league. Now, even with the Patriots’ offense slowly improving, I don’t think that means Harris’ touchdown total will go up, or even remain the same.

He’ll have much more competition for volume this season with the team drafting a pair of running backs AND the continued growth of last years’ rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who we’ll get to in a bit. It also doesn’t help that Harris is a virtual non-factor in the receiving game, and projects that way again this upcoming season. So, while Harris might still hang onto the goal line role, he might not get the same type of overall workload that he got last season.

Tier 9 (Handcuffs That Aren’t Just Handcuffs)

36. Melvin Gordon III
37. Mark Ingram
38. Nyheim Hines

While I’ve already talked about some players that profile as handcuffs, I see those guys with more standalone value than I do this tier. Guys like Hunt, Pollard and Dillon will have some type of significant role in their respective offense. While at least one of these guys might have some sort of role within their offense, I don’t see any of these guys carrying starter production while they’re still second on their depth charts.

Melvin Gordon is the one guy in this tier that could still have some sort of important role within his offense without needing an injury or trade to happen. He handled the majority of snaps last season for the Broncos, but only by a hair as he was splitting carries with rookie Javonte Williams. That being said, he still had over 200 carries to go along with 39 targets that helped him produce RB2 numbers last season.

Gordon is still a good running back at this stage of his career. But the upside that Williams presents at this stage of his career may influence the new Broncos’ coaching staff to give him he majority of snaps over Gordon this season. Even if that happens, I still think that Gordon will have a role in the offense, whether that is a relief role to give Javonte breaks, or they split the carries similarly to what they did last season. New head coach Nathaniel Hackett came from Green Bay where both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon got big workloads, so there is potential for that to happen in Denver as well.

The only reason I have Mark Ingram this high is based off the Alvin Kamara suspension situation. Whenever Kamara has been out with injury and the Saints had Mark Ingram on their roster, they ended up giving him the full workload. While I won’t speculate what Kamara’s suspension length will be, the most reported number of games has been six. If that’s the case, Ingram would project as an RB2 during those games if he continues to handle the vast majority of the workload.

Another thing to note about Kamara is he was the least efficient he’s ever been in his career last season on his career high in rushing attempts. There’s a chance that Mark Ingram gets usage even when Kamara is on the field, to try and limit his workload so they get the best version of Kamara possible. There isn’t a whole lot of stats saying Ingram’s still got it. But the Saints traded for him last season to help overcome Kamara’s injury, and he produced fairly well during those games. Without Kamara, I like Ingram as an RB2. With Kamara, there’s still a chance he gets 10 carries a game.

Obviously, Jonathan Taylor will be handling the overwhelming majority of volume coming out of the Colts’ backfield. But Nyheim Hines has carved out a nice role in the receiving game for the Colts ever since he was drafted in 2018. He’s had at least 40 catches in every season of his career, which includes not missing a single game during that stretch. Even with Taylor getting some opportunities in the passing game last season, Hines ranked twelfth amongst running backs with 57 targets.

Another reason to like Hines is the fact that the Colts have very little depth at wide receiver entering this season. Michael Pittman Jr. is a stud, but behind him, it’s a bunch of unproven youngsters. The Colts have shown that they want to keep Hines involved in some way, which makes me think we could see him line up as a slot guy at times this season, just so the Colts can get him the ball. If this wasn’t PPR, I’m not sure Hines would even make this list, since his value is almost purely as a pass catching back. But since this is PPR, Hines could see a little standalone value, depending on his usage.

Tier 10 (RBs with Upside If Given The Chance)

39. D. McKissic
40. James Cook
41. Isaiah Spiller
42. Rhamondre Stevenson
43. Ronald Jones II
44. Ken Walker III
45. Darrell Henderson Jr.
46. Michael Carter
47. Kenneth Gainwell
48. Jamaal Williams
49. Dameon Pierce
50. Tyrion Davis-Price

At this point in your drafts, you should have three running backs that either you like or will give you the volume you like. That’s when, in my opinion, you should look to draft at least one more running back that has some serious upside if he hits his 80-90% outcome. I don’t believe any of these guys should be starting for you week one, but they all offer some sort of upside at one of the toughest positions to get right in fantasy. With all that being said, I won’t go too in-depth on these guys, as I’m just trying to outline potential paths for fantasy production, rather than projecting them as guys who won’t get much playing time to start the season.

We’ll kick it off with J.D. McKissic, who is just two years removed from having 110 targets AS A RUNNING BACK! While he isn’t likely to ever see that amount of volume again, especially in a crowded Commanders’ running back room, it does show how much value the team puts in his receiving ability. He’s finished each of the last two seasons as a borderline RB2, and he could see a pretty big receiving workload if Antonio Gibson misses any time.

Even if Gibson doesn’t miss time this season, McKissic had the fourth highest target share amongst running backs last season at almost 15%. Even with the change in quarterback from Heinicke, who had the seventh highest check down rate over the last two seasons, to Wentz, who was middle of the pack, McKissic should still see a solid receiving workload.

James Cook has one of the highest ceilings in this tier due to his talent and situation. He was drafted in the second round of this year’s draft by the Buffalo Bills, a team that is widely projected to be one of the best offenses in football. The Bills tried to get McKissic in free agency, but he ended up going back to Washington. This to me signals the Bills wanted a receiving back to at least complement Devin Singletary in the backfield. Unlike McKissic however, Cook has some serious upside and could end up taking on the majority of the workload by season’s end.

Another rookie in this tier is Isaiah Spiller. He’s also in a high-powered offense but is behind one of the better running backs in the league in Austin Ekeler. However, I’m not necessarily sure that he’s “behind” Ekeler. Ekeler was vocal throughout the offseason that he felt like he was getting worn down by the end of last season. I think Spiller will be someone the Chargers look to to spell Ekeler for stretches, kind of like Ingram does with Kamara, just to a lesser extent. I also think that Spiller’s skillset presents him an opportunity, should Ekeler go down with an injury this season, to take on a three-down role with one of the most prolific offense in the NFL. A lot to like for a late-round fantasy draft pick.

Moving onto a sophomore running back, Rhamondre Stevenson is just another one of the talented running backs up in New England. He flashed as a rookie, posting a couple of 100-yard games, in both of which he also had two touchdowns. The issue is he plays for the Patriots, who have held a running back by committee game plan for as long as I can remember. However, that isn’t to say New England doesn’t use all of their running backs.

Plus, if not for a fumble during week one last season, there’s a chance Bill Belichick would’ve given him more of a workload throughout the season. If Damien Harris gets banged up again, look for Stevenson to put up some monster numbers if he’s given the keys to the backfield.

Ronald Jones II is someone I’m just not sure what to do with. When the Chiefs signed him this offseason, there were reports that he could challenge CEH for the starting job in Kansas City. Now, there have been reports this week that he could be cut before the season starts. For now, I’m going to put my stake somewhere in the middle, although his range of outcomes is one of the biggest on this list. If he does challenge CEH for starting-level work, then he could be a steal at his current ADP. If he is cut, well obviously he has no value whatsoever.

While I’m pretty much out on all the Seattle offense, Ken Walker III is someone who I could see myself drafting if he falls far enough. Seattle used a second-round pick on him in this year’s draft, and they seem committed to trying to run the ball, although I’m not sure they’ll have many chances next season considering they’ll most likely be playing from behind.

Anyways, with Chris Carson officially retiring and Rashaad Penny no sure bet to continue his monstrous stretch run production, Ken Walker could see touches right away. Especially if Penny gets hurt, he could see all the early down work in this offense, but even that might not be that valuable considering the offense that he’s a part of.

This next guy has no issues in terms of the offense he’s in, he’s just behind Cam Akers. I’m talking about Darrell Henderson Jr., who looked great to start the season when Akers was hurt. Throughout the first eight weeks of last season, Henderson only had one week below double-digit fantasy points, and every other week he put up at least 15 points.

With Akers coming back at the end of last season and immediately taking on a massive workload, it seems as if the Rams want to use Akers as much as possible. However, there’s a chance that Henderson settles into a change of pace role, which would expand to full blown workhorse duties if Akers gets hurt again.

Michael Carter was a guy I was very high on before the Jets drafted Breece Hall in this year’s draft. He looked good as a rookie last season, finishing the year as a borderline RB2 in fantasy and putting up almost 1,000 total yards. Now, with Hall officially in the picture and projected to start, Carter takes a fall in my rankings. I do however still think Carter will be a piece of this offense this year, and I think New York’s offense could make a nice jump if quarterback Zach Wilson can improve on a rough rookie year.

Carter might still see a lot of third down work, especially early in the season if the Jets aren’t comfortable handing the workhorse duty to Hall this early on in the season. My biggest issue with Carter is I don’t see many paths other than injury to putting up better numbers, because I believe Hall’s role will only increase as the season goes on.

Remember how I was talking about Miles Sanders and how he can’t catch a ball? Well, it doesn’t seem to matter to Philadelphia because it looks like they like Kenneth Gainwell in that role too much to take him out of it anyways. Gainwell saw an 11.3% target share in his rookie season with the Eagles last year, good for 16^th among running backs. In PPR, Gainwell might see some spike weeks where he catches seven passes for 60 yards and a touchdown, but those weeks are pretty hard to predict. There are so many mouths to feed in the Philadelphia backfield that I feel the only way for him to see any rushing workload is with a Sanders AND Scott injury, something that did happen last season at times.

Unlike the last few guys I talked about, I do think Jamaal Williams could offer some standalone value as the other running back in Detroit. While I do project Swift to get an even bigger workload than last season, that doesn’t mean Jamaal Williams role as the Lions’ change of pace back will just disappear. I think Detroit could be one of the run-heaviest teams in the league this year, due their fantastic offensive line and multiple talented running backs, which includes Williams. He should still see about 10 touches per game next season, with a potentially massive workload if Swift goes down with an injury.

The last two guys who are a part of my tier list are a couple of rookies. The first one I’ll briefly be talking about is Dameon Pierce, who was drafted in the fourth-round of this year’s draft by the Houston Texans. The Texans have very little talent across their roster, but especially in their backfield, where they are led by Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead. This could create a big opportunity for Pierce, who was extremely efficient at Florida despite limited touches, to seize a majority of backfield touches. Now, kind of going along with my thoughts on Seattle, I have minimal interest in Houston’s offense outside of Brandin Cooks. However, any starting running back with a majority of usage in their backfield is worth taking a late round flyer on.

Last but not least we have Tyrion Davis-Price, a former LSU back who got drafted in the third round of this year’s draft by the 49ers. San Francisco is known for producing fantasy relevant running backs week in and week out, we just never know who it’s going to be. Last year, the Niners took Trey Sermon the third-round and Elijah Mitchell in the sixth, but Mitchell ended up getting the entire backfield to himself, even when Sermon was healthy. TDP could find himself in a similar situation to Mitchell as a rookie, someone who comes in, does what Shanahan wants and get promoted very quickly because of it. However, it would likely take several injuries to guys above him in the depth chart to see significant volume like Mitchell did.

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Photo Credits: Sports Illustrated

All statistics used are sourced through hyperlinks within the text. Thanks to everyone whose work helped me complete my tier list. Goodluck and Happy Drafting!