by UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Preview and Prediction
This card follows a pretty strong UFC 315 show last week and will have every chance to create stars as the show is on free tv at a time that the MMA world has been buzzing. Let’s get right to the fights we are looking forward to the most, along with the predictions on who I believe will win.
Undercard Fights to watch.
I think we will have some fun this week and pick the only 3 Women’s Fights on the card, all of which happen to be on the undercard.
Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro
Prediction – Pennington by UD
Reason for pick – Pinheiro comes in a loser of three straight in the UFC and her only marquee win was against Michelle Waterson back in April of 2023 in a disputed split decision. Pennington comes in a heavy favorite with marquee wins over Carla Esparza, Michelle Waterson, Juliana Lima, Felice Herrig, Thug Rose and Paige VanZant.
She has also lost to some of the biggest names in the game including Thug Rose, Mackenzie Dern, Zhang Weili, Joanna Jedrejczyk and Jessica Andrade. So, to say that Pennington is battle tested would be an understatement. Pinheiro won’t be a walk in the park for her and Luana actually has the reach advantage, I still believe Pennington wins by UD.
Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes
Prediction – Gomes by KO
Reason for pick – Gomes posses knockout power and speed, with 6 of her 10 wins coming via TKO. 2 of her 3 losses came at Strawweight where this fight is being contested. Meanwhile Reed comes in as a heavy underdog with something to prove. She has lost last 4 of her last 8 and needing to find her footing once again.
Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa
Fan Duel Odds Santos – 156 Lisboa +122
Prediction – Santos by UD
Reason for pick – At 8-2 with 4 subs, Santos has already proven to be an exciting fighter but not allowing many fights to go the distance. Lisboa comes in 9 years her senior which tells me she needs to try and end it quick because her stamina may not be as good. Also, Lisboa has one less career fight despite the age gap and one less win at 7-2. I see Santos grinding out the victory here with a 29-28 across the board.
MAIN CARD PICK THREE PREDICTIONS
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev
Prediction – Ruziboev by 2nd round TKO.
Reason for Pick – Stoltzfus has lost 5 of his last 7 and is hanging on by a thread in the UFC right now. Meanwhile, Ruziboev has won 11 of his last 12 and earned finished in all 11 victories. The only knock on Ruziboev is that he hasn’t beaten anyone of any name value, so he can do that with a win here and I believe he will.
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato
Prediction – Rodolfo by UD
Reason for Pick – Rodolfo Bellato is a Brazilian tank who has made his name at Light Heavyweight. He can ground and pound you or he can simply outpoint you, he has done plenty of both in his 12 career wins next to only 2 losses and 1 draw. This is a rare appearance for him at heavyweight but appears to be the path he needs to take if he wants UFC gold.
His opponent Paul Craig is the definition of “Journeyman”. He has 17 wins in 27 career fights, and has fought mainly at middleweight, this is a huge jump in size for Craig. But here is the thing, he is seasoned, very seasoned and is capable of a shocker. Despite losing 6 of his last 7, he was competitive in most of them, including his most recent fight against Bo Nickal.
While I feel everything points to Rodolfo winning a decision here, I think Craig is going to give him one Hell of a war and if you’re looking to score big on a +340 underdog with one sizable bet, go with Craig. However, if you want the safe pick and are banking on a parlay, go with Rodolfo.
Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales
Prediction – Morales by KO in the 4th
Reason for Pick – Morales is a huge favorite at -800 here. Reason being he is 17-0 with 13 finishes and seems like the next big thig at UFC Welterweight. Gilbert Burns is no stranger to the main event and has had a few fight of the night in his history as well. Burns sits at +480 and has enough power in that right hand to knock Morales out cold. Despite losing 3 straight and 5 of his last 8, Burns will not be a walkover and Morales needs to be at his very best.
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