by Welcome back, folks! After a scorching hot Week 5, we came back to earth last week, finishing 2-2. Before we dive into the Week 7 slate, let’s take a look back at how everything shook out.
Both the over and the under hit with ease last week. Vegas had the over in the Buccaneers-Saints game at 41 and the two squads combined for 51 points in the first half alone. Joe Flacco and the Colts got a comeback victory on the road and the total stayed under by six points.
Now for the losses. The Cleveland Browns picked up their fourth straight loss, but unfortunately for us did just enough to cover the 9.5 against the Eagles. The Monday night game was a thriller, but a 22-yard field goal from Tyler Bass gave the Bills a win and us a half-point loss.
Now that we got that out of the way, let’s get into Week 7. As always, I’ll pick a favorite and underdog against the spread, along with an over and an under. Here are my NFL Week 6 Best Bets.
Favorite
New York Jets (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers Sun. 8:20 pm NBC/Peacock
I know the Jets failed to cover against the Bills last week, but this isn’t all about the Jets. Pittsburgh is off to a 4-2 start and while Justin Fields hasn’t been great, he’s done enough to win them games. Russell Wilson is finally healthy and Mike Tomlin has made the decision to make him the starter. Football juju wise this just feels wrong. I have a feeling this is going to bite the Steelers in the behind and it could start in primetime Sunday night against Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.
Underdog
Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) @ San Francisco 49ers Sun. 4:25 pm FOX
To say Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been Patrick Mahomes would be an understatement. Though the Chiefs are undefeated, their star quarterback has thrown as many interceptions (6) as he has touchdown passes. With a tough opponent like San Francisco, I can see why the line is where it is. But Andy Reid is 21-4 in his career following a bye week and big time players show up in big time games. I like Kansas City to cover and likely win outright.
Over
Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers O49.5 Mon. 8:15 pm ESPN/ABC
This one is a battle between two of the top four scoring offenses in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is leading the league in touchdown passes and the Bucs’ offense has scored over 30 points four times, including a 51 point performance against the Saints last week. The Ravens are a run heavy team, but even they have hit the 30-point mark three weeks in a row. This one feels like it could be a shoot-out.
Under
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders U51.5 Sun. 4:05 CBS
I could be totally wrong but this one makes absolutely no sense to me. Jayden Daniels has been impressive so far as a rookie and the Commanders are averaging nearly 30 points per game (29.7). On the other hand, the Panthers are the Panthers. Andy Dalton has been better but, outside of Chuba Hubbard, nobody on the offensive side of the ball has been impressive. Unless Washington can score 40+ points, I can’t see how this goes over.
Record: 11-11-2
There you have it folks, my NFL Week 7 Best Bets. Feel free to comment your own picks or tell me where I went wrong. Let’s have a week! Always bet responsibly.
