Well folks, let’s just rip the band-aid off: last week was a disaster. Before diving into the Week 5 slate, we should take a look at where I went wrong last week.
The Chiefs lost Rashee Rice to a potential season-ending injury in the first quarter of their matchup with the Chargers and the over missed by 13 points. With the score 10-7 at the half, it never felt like it would get close.
Speaking of never being close, the Ravens destroyed the Bills 35-10 and easily covered the -2.5. After starting the season 0-2, Baltimore has found its groove the last two weeks with wins over tough opponents.
Los Angeles at Chicago had a chance of hitting into the fourth quarter, but a field goal from the Rams pushed the total to 42, missing the under by two points. The lone bright spot was the Bengals covering on the road in Carolina. Cincinnati needed a get right game before their matchup with Baltimore and they got it.
Enough of all that, let’s dive into the Week 5 slate. As always, I’ll pick a favorite and underdog against the spread along with an over and an under. Here’s to a better week! These are my Week 5 Best Bets.
Favorite
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams  Sun. 4:25 pm CBS
This is a matchup between the #3 offense in the NFL against the #31 defense and somehow the Packers are only favored by three. Jordan Love is still dealing a knee injury, but turned in a career performance last week after missing the previous two games. Josh Jacobs is fitting into the Packers’ offense well and will look to take advantage of a Rams defense that gives up 4.98 yards per carry. This feels like the potential lock of the weekend.
Underdog
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (+1)Â Â Sun. 1 pm CBS
For those in Northeast Ohio with Sunday Ticket this is the game to watch this weekend, not the Browns vs. Commanders. Even though taking a team at +1 feels like cheating, a win is a win. Nico Collins is red-hot for the Texans with three straight 100-yard games. For me, this feels like a Stefon Diggs revenge game. CJ Stroud has the ability to sling the ball all over the field and has no shortage of weapons. This one will probably be close, but I like the Texans.
Over
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings O40Â Â Sun. 9:30 am NFL Network
Sam Darnold is leading the NFL in passing touchdowns. Yes, you read that right. The Vikings are off to a 4-0 start and the former Jets first-rounder looks like an MVP candidate in Minnesota. The Vikings have scored 30 points in each of the last two weeks and I expect Darnold to play with a little something extra. Besides, who doesn’t love an over with their morning coffee.
Under
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers U44Â Â Sun. 8:20 pm NBC/Peacock
As much as it pains me to say, the Steelers are looking good, especially on the defensive side of the ball. While the offense still struggles to find success, the defense is holding opponents to just 13.3 points per game. Outside of their Week 1 win over the Browns, the Cowboys offense has struggled to find a foothold and rank dead last in the league in rushing. Their defense isn’t much better, but the Steelers offense is unlikely to take advantage of it. There’s no way this total should be higher than New Orleans @ Kansas City.
Record:Â 6-9-1
There you have it, my Week 5 Best Bets. Feel free to sound off in the comments with your picks or tell me where you think I went wrong. Enjoy another NFL Sunday and, as always, bet responsibly.
