by Another week, another exciting NFL slate on the horizon. Before we dive into this week’s picks, let’s take a second and look back on Week 3.
This time we’ll start with the positives. Shout out to my friends Brandon Soeder and Branden Markevich, they hit the nail on the head with the Bears-Colts under and it never felt in doubt. Those who tailed the Packers +2.5 are feeling good this week and feeling even better if you got the +120 moneyline.
On the flip side, last week’s losses can only be described as BAD. It turns out I was completely wrong about the Andy Dalton-led Panthers, as Carolina not only covered +5.5 but beat the Raiders by 14. The over of 49.5 in the Eagles-Saints game also never had a chance. Not only did I suffer through the Browns debacle, I had to watch this game head to the fourth quarter 3-0.
The good news is we get to try again this week. As always, I’ll pick a favorite and underdog against the spread along with and over and an under. Here’s to another great week of NFL football, these are my Week 4 Best Bets.
Favorite
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) @ Carolina Panthers Sun. 1 pm FOX
Based on last week’s results, this one feels like a trap but I just can’t resist. The Bengals’ season and possibly Zac Taylor’s job could be on the line this week in Carolina. Jamar Chase is coming off a 100+ yard, two touchdown performance in which Joe Burrow threw for 324 yards. If the Bengals lose this week heads will start to roll in Cincinnati. I expect them to play with a sense of urgency and take advantage of a weaker opponent. This is a gut pick more than anything so tail at your own risk.
Underdog
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens Sun. 8:15 pm NBC/Peacock
The Bills are off to a red-hot start and Josh Allen is looking like an MVP candidate. While the offense is averaging over 37 points per game, the defense has only allowed four offensive touchdowns through three weeks. The Ravens bounced back last week with a road victory over the Cowboys but I feel like the Bills are the better team at this point in the season. Buffalo currently has the third best Super Bowl odds at +800 but a win over Baltimore could push that number lower.
Over
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers O40 Sun. 4:25 CBS
Through three weeks, I don’t feel like we have seen the best version of the Chiefs’ offense. While Rashee Rice is off to a hot start, Mahomes touchdown to interception ratio stands at 5-4. For the Chargers, the defense has been lights out allowing just 11 points per game. All of this points towards the under, but I feel like this is the week Kansas City breaks out. Past seasons don’t matter all that much, but only two of their last 15 meetings would have gone under this total.
Under
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears U40.5 Sun. 1 pm CBS
I like picking things that hit and so far this season the Bears’ games have all been under the DraftKings line. The Rams offense is beat up right now and are going against a tough defense in Chicago. The Rams aren’t great defensively this year, but I don’t think Caleb Williams is ready to take advantage of it. Good thing there are plenty of games in the 1 pm slot because this one might be ugly.
Record: 5-6-1
There you have it, my Week 4 NFL Best Bets. Feel free to share your picks for this week’s slate in the comments and, as always, bet responsibly. Enjoy another NFL Sunday!
