by UFC 319 is finally upon us and it features one of the best main events fans have seen in a long time as Middleweight Champion Dricus du Plessis ( DDP) defends Khamzat Chimaev. The two have a combined record of 37-2 and are seen as two of the very best in the sport. We’ll get to that in a bit, but the main card is loaded from top to bottom with 5 great fights. Let’s get right to the picks!
Reach size in parentheses.
Tim Elliot ( 66 ) vs Kai Asakura ( 69 )
Preview – Asakura lost his UFC debut by submission to Alexandre Pantoja and is looking to bounce back from that quickly. He spent almost his entire career in RIZIN on his route to a 21-5 record currently. He needs a win badly here over the UFC veteran Elliot.
Tim Elliot has been with the UFC since 2012 and has seen plenty of ups and down on his way to a 20-13-1 record. Elliot may be old, he may be long past his prime, but he can still catch you in a quick submission if you don’t take him seriously much like what happened to his last opponent Su Mudaerji back in December of 2023.
I do think that the long layoff and age for Elliot works against him here when you combine that with Asakura desperate for a victory here.
Prediction – Asakura
Jared Cannonier ( 77 ) vs Michael Page ( 79 )
Preview – After making a name for himself in Bellator with a 20-2 record, Page is off to a ho hum start in the UFC, going 2-1 and still looking for his first finish. Meanwhile, Cannonier has been in nearly 10 UFC Main events and once challenged Izzy for the UFC Middleweight Championship. He has lost 3 of his last 6 however, but I feel that he gets back on track with a dominant victory here, despite being the slight underdog.
Prediction – Cannonier
Geoff Neal (75) vs Carlos Prates (78)
Preview – Carlos Prates loves knocking people out, out of his 21 career victories, 16 have come the way of knockout. The only problem is that approach sometimes leaves himself wide open to get hit as well. He has lost 7 times and been finished in 5 of those.
Geoff Neal is about as boring as his name would suggest. For Neal, his biggest win came in his last fight over Rafeal dos Anjos, however, that was a fluke knee injury by RDA early into the first. Neal really hasn’t done too much too impress on his way to this fight.
Prediction – Prates by KO
Lerone Murphy ( 73 ) vs Aaron Pico ( 70 )
This fight has the potential to be great or a total snoozefest. So many times a great collegiate fighter will get off to a hot start in MMA and then get figured out and his done for good. So many times a wrestler will tear it up in Bellator and then come over to UFC to get exposed. Will that be the case of Aaron Pico?
Pico, in Bellator, recreated the ground and pound attack while racking up a 13-4 record with 10 knockouts coming on the ground as he pounded the opponent he took down. He also got caught and finished 4 times with 3 of those coming in the first round. You truly do not know what you’re getting with Pico. He has also beaten a bunch of tomato cans which also muddies the waters here quite a bit.
Lerone Murphy comes into this fight, 16-0-1, he has never lost in his MMA career and yet, is a +134 underdog. I don’t know what to say. Clearly, the odds makers here love Pico. Murphy gets a lot of decision wins, but who cares, he wins.
Prediction – Lerone Murphy
UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus du Plessis ( 76 ) vs Khamzat Chimaev ( 75 )
Preview – DDP truly has the heart of a champion as he continues to win fights that everyone counts him out in. He needs to take Chimaev into the deep waters to pull it off. He has beaten former champions Sean Strickland, Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, so he is not intimidated by anyone.
Chimaev is a great mystery to me, he is so incredibly good, but when you only fight once a year, it is hard to build any kind of legacy. He is 14-0 with 8 of these finishes coming in the very first round quickly. He is only been taken to 3rd round twice in his entire career. He has wins over names such Gilbert Burns, Kamaru Usman, Robert Whittaker and Kevin Holland.
If DDP is going to pull off another upset here, he needs to survive the early rush from Chimaev and get him into deep waters. DDP could do it, this would not be the giant upset some may think. He has to survive early to challenge late.
Prediction – Chimaev
