by Welcome Folks! If you know me from here on the website, you know me as one of the high school football guys. If you are in my group of friends, you know me as a terrible sports bettor. So that’s what I will bring to the amazing readers here at KeeOnSports, an insight into the mind of a guy who often loses confidence soon after kickoff. I’ll pick a favorite and an underdog against the spread each week along with an over and an under. If you have read this far, it should be clear that you cannot get rich following my picks. Instead, kick back, enjoy the NFL slate, and don’t forget to roast me in the comments. Without further ado, here are my Week 1 NFL best bets.
Favorite
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)
8.5 points is a lot of points to cover in Week 1, trust me I know. I just think that the Patriots have the potential to be that bad this season. Drake Maye will sit and learn while Jacoby Brissett takes the reigns of the offense early on. With no weapons on offense, they will likely struggle to score no matter who’s under center. On the other side, the Bengals have something to prove. Joe Burrow is coming off an injury and Jamar Chase is looking to get paid. The AFC North is the toughest division in football and Cincinnati cannot afford to come out flat against weak opponents. I like the Bengals by a lot of points.
Underdog
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns
Look away Browns fans. Don’t get me wrong, my heart says the Browns by a billion. But you can’t always listen to your heart. Cleveland will be without starting LT Jedrick Wills and the position may be filled by a combination of Jack Conklin and James Hudson III, according to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. I trust neither of those guys against the pass rush of Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. Deshaun Watson took zero snaps in the preseason and the Cowboys’ defense is a heckuva bunch to take your first snaps against with a shaky offensive line. I like the spread and may even take the Cowboys moneyline at +114.
Over
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins O49
To put it simply, the Dolphins offense is loaded. Tua and company are back for year three under Mike McDaniel, fresh off leading the NFL with 29.2 points per game, scoring even more at home. The speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle ensures the Dolphins will score their fair share. The Jaguars can put up some points of their own, ranking seventh in the league with 23.7 points per game on the road. Travis Etienne is healthy and rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. is a big-play threat who led the the nation with 17 touchdowns last season. There are question marks on both defenses so I feel good about the over here.
Under
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears U44.5
For me, this one boils down to Will Levis. The Titans have some weapons with Deandre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley, but I don’t trust Levis to get them the ball. While he showed some flashes as a rookie, he only completed 58.4% of his passes. Tony Pollard joins the backfield to replace Derrick Henry, but he’s no Derrick Henry. I am high on Caleb Williams and the additions to the Bears’ offense but they would have to put up a lot of points for this to go over 44.5.
There you have it, my Week 1 NFL best bets. Feel free to sound off in the comments and tell me where I am wrong, I welcome the back-and-forth. Football is finally back, enjoy Week 1!
