2022-23 Fantasy Football WR Tier List

Tier 1 (Top 5 Total Point Upside)

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Cooper Kupp

Like most fantasy football analysts, I think there is a clear-cut top two wide receivers this year. I just have them flip flopped. While one of them put up the best receiving season ever, I think the other has a chance to put up some historic numbers in his own right this upcoming season. That guy is Justin Jefferson.

He’s already put up some historic numbers in only two NFL seasons, putting up the most receiving yards through a players first two seasons in NFL history with just over 3,000. There are so many statistics that can be used to view Justin Jefferson as a top wide receiver in the league that it really isn’t worth listing them all. What is worth talking about with Justin Jefferson is the potential offensive system change that new head coach Kevin O’Connell will bring to Minnesota.

With O’Connell stemming from the McVay coaching tree, I’m projecting Justin Jefferson to get the Cooper Kupp role in this new, modern offense. Kupp finished his historic season with 191 targets. Jefferson last year already drew 167 targets from Kirk Cousins. I think we could see Jefferson potentially get closer to Kupp’s number of targets last year than the 167 he finished with last year. More volume for Justin Jefferson equals more opportunity for his immense amount of talent to shine.

Now, it’s not that I’m down on Cooper Kupp. We just talked about how he just had the best receiving season ever, getting the triple crown of leading the league in catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. That has only happened four times since 1970, and that list includes three hall of famers and Cooper Kupp. Kupp’s stat line from last year also tops those other three seasons in every category. This just goes to show how dominant Kupp truly was last season.

The issue with last season though is that it doesn’t feel repeatable, meaning I think those stats will only go down from here, albeit they’re not going to fall off a cliff. During the following season for those three other triple crown winners, either two of the three categories went down in production, or all three did. None of the receiver fell off a cliff, but they failed to repeat their insane seasons from before, and Kupp’s season last year was the best of all of them. Plus, with the addition of Allen Robinson this offseason and Cam Akers coming back after a full offseason to recover, I think Jefferson will have more opportunities to shine than Kupp does this season.

Tier 2 (Set and Forget WR1s)

3. Stefon Diggs
4. Ja’Marr Chase
5. Mike Evans
6. Davante Adams

In this tier of wide receivers, I still think you could take these guys in the first round, it’s just a little more dependent on who else is available. In the tier above, I think you can make an argument that either of those guys could go top three in drafts this year. Here, I’m a little more skeptical about a few things, but they’re still some of the best of the best in terms of talent, and more often than not, talent wins out.

I feel like I’m a lot higher than consensus on Stefon Diggs here, mainly because I have him above Ja’Marr Chase, who I’ll get to in a moment. I guess I just don’t see a reason why Diggs can’t finish above Chase this season. Diggs has one of, if not the best quarterback in the league in Josh Allen. He is the focal point in one of the pass-happiest offenses in the league. And, since going to Buffalo at the beginning of the 2020 season, he leads the league in targets with 330 and is fourth in receiving yards with 2,760.

I can totally see the argument that Diggs is the safer pick over Chase and that Chase has significantly more upside, because that’s totally true. But Buffalo lost 184 targets this offseason with the departures of Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, and I think a portion of those targets will just go over to Diggs. While a lot of the hype is that breakout star Gabe Davis will just get all the left-over volume, but I think it will be spread out between Davis, Diggs, Dawson Knox and free agent acquisition Jamison Crowder. If that’s the case, Diggs has a shot at the type of volume Cooper Kupp saw last season, and he’s displayed the talent level necessary to produce elite numbers with that volume.

My ranking of Ja’Marr Chase has nothing to do with his talent level. Chase already looks like one of the best receivers in the league, and he might already be the best in terms of after the catch production. He was fifth in yards after catch with 550, third in deep targets with 30 and second in yards per reception with 18. The dude proved his connection from college with stud quarterback Joe Burrow was legit, and that connection should only get stronger as they continue to play together.

I have two concerns with Chase, and both could be rendered pretty bizarre by the time were a few games into the season. My first is that he created so many deep touchdowns with his ability after the catch that most other wide receivers would’ve been tackled on that it seems really hard to repeat his 13 touchdowns from last season. My second is that with the Bengals doing a great job upgrading their offensive line this offseason, they might try to run the ball a bit more this season than last. Cincinnati finished in the bottom half of the league in rushing attempts last season, but they have a great running back in Joe Mixon. I think Cincinnati will have a more balanced offense this season with teams prioritizing stopping Ja’Marr Chase more on defense.

I contemplated moving Mike Evans to tier 4 when the Bucs signed Julio Jones yesterday, but I think that is overthinking things a little bit. Jones looked better than most people think when he was healthy last season, he just had Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. However, that “when healthy” thing is definitely something to monitor with Julio, which makes me feel like Mike Evans will still have a shot at top five overall fantasy production at the wide receiver position.

Since Mike Evans was drafted in 2014, he has put up eight straight seasons of 1,000 receiving yards, and six of those seasons came with at least 8 touchdowns. That is the most 1,000 receiving yard seasons ever to start an NFL career. With Brady as his quarterback the past two seasons, Evans has posted back-to-back career highs in touchdowns, with 13 and 14 respectively, with his 14 breaking Tampa’s record for single season receiving touchdowns. Now with Brady’s favorite red zone threat gone in Gronk, Evans could see even more touchdown upside.

The last guy in this tier is someone who I thought about moving down these rankings, but at the end of the day talent won out in my mind. Davante Adams has been one of the best receivers in football over the past half dozen seasons, averaging over 11 touchdowns per season during that stretch. During that stretch, he had an 18 touchdown season, which is third all-time for most receiving touchdowns in a season.

Now, Adams moves away from one of the best quarterbacks to ever throw a football in Aaron Rodgers, to his former college teammate Derek Carr in Las Vegas. Not only is that a significant downgrade at the quarterback position, but there are many more mouths to feed in Vegas than there were in Green Bay. Hunter Renfrow had 128 targets last season, and Waller was well on his way to a 100-target season, if not for missing six games. Meanwhile in Green Bay, after Adams’ massive 169 targets, the guys with the second most targets on the team was running back Aaron Jones who finished with only 65 targets. Adams finished second in target share last season with a whopping 31.6% share, something that is bound to regress in a more talented offense.

Tier 3 (Tier 2 WRs when they play)

7. Chris Godwin
8. Deebo Samuel

This was a weird decision by me considering I would not draft either of these players before anyone in my next tier as it stands due to Godwin’s injury concerns and Deebo’s contract situation. However, both situations seem to be going in the right direction, and I feel like when these guys are on the field, they are better than anyone listed below other than maybe Tyreek Hill. With all that being said, let’s get into Chris Godwin, whose recovery from his torn ACL seems to be going ahead of schedule.

Godwin was another guy in Tampa’s offense that I thought about moving down in my rankings once Julio was signed, but the same things that I previously mentioned about Julio remains just the same here. If Godwin is on the field and looks healthy, he can easily produce WR1 numbers as he’s proven the past three seasons. Last season before his injury, Godwin had a shot at a career high in receiving yards, not to mention he already broke his career high in receptions before his injury.

Despite losing Gronk and Antonio Brown this offseason, Tampa has reloaded with receiving weapons such as Russell Gage, Kyle Rudolph and the newly signed Julio Jones. That’s a ton of mouths to feed, but Tampa might be the one team that can support three fantasy wide receivers and maybe even a touchdown dependent tight end. This is because they have Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback to ever live. I’m projecting Tampa as a top five offense for next season, mainly because of their passing attack. Tampa led the league in pass attempts per game last season with 43 (!) attempts per game. If they continue to throw the ball that much, look for a lot of that volume to go towards Evans and Godwin.

Deebo Samuel is another guy who has top-end talent at the wide receiver position but has been vocal about his desire to be traded so that he can get a bigger contract. Most recent reports indicate that he and the 49ers are starting to get on the same page in contract negotiations, but even if he signs with the 49ers and plays week one, there are still some questions to be answered.

Much of Deebo’s fantasy value came from his rushing usage, which he’s also been vocal about not wanting much of anymore. If his rushing usage goes down, that takes out a big chunk of production that gave him an edge over most of the receivers last season. Another cause for concern with Deebo is the quarterback change. Even though I’m high on Trey Lance as a fantasy quarterback, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s the better quarterback for Deebo Samuel. I’m assuming Deebo still carries some value as a rusher, just not as much as he did last season, and that he’ll get more shots downfield than he ever did with Jimmy G at the helm. Those things, in my mind, will help him get close to the production he had last year, just maybe a bit more inefficiently.

Tier 4 (Low-end WR1s with “Set and Forget” Upside)

9. CeeDee Lamb
10. Keenan Allen
11. Tyreek Hill

There’s one guy in this tier that I’m definitely lower than consensus on, but I view these guys in the same light. All three of the wide receivers in this tier are going to get a lot of targets in good-to-great offenses and have displayed the talent to deserve those targets and produce some great numbers. However, the reason I view CeeDee Lamb as a fringe top ten guy is because I have doubts about the Dallas offense.

I think Lamb is good wide receiver, but I don’t think he’s a world beater like some of these other young receivers are. Lamb’s route win rate ranked 55^th last year at 38.4%. His contested catch percentage ranked 62^nd at 31.6%. Heck, even his target separation last season was 42^nd at 1.65 yards of separation. I’m not trying to say CeeDee Lamb is a bad receiver, I’m just saying I don’t view him as one of the best up-and-coming wide receivers that a lot of other people seem to think of him as.

That being said, the other reason a lot of people like CeeDee Lamb as a breakout candidate this year is due to the volume he could see this season. The Cowboys lost 164 targets this offseason by trading Amari Cooper and losing Cedrick Wilson in free agency. CeeDee seems to be the likely candidate to take on the majority of those targets. However, since Dak Prescott came into the league in 2016, the Cowboys have never had a singular player eclipse 132 targets in a single season. Dallas is a team that likes to spread the ball around, which I think will cap Lamb’s target share a bit more than most are projecting. While I still think Lamb will pass that mark of 132, I’m not sure it’s by as much as other people think.

Probably my second favorite offense to target this season is the Los Angeles Chargers, which is why I have Keenan Allen as high as I do. Now, Allen’s never been a monster yards after catch guy or even a touchdown machine, but in four of the last five seasons Keenan Allen has caught at least 100 passes. There’s 100 points basically guaranteed with Keenan Allen, not even counting his yards or potential touchdowns, where I think he could have a career year in.

Last season, Keenan Allen was tied for fifth in red zone targets with 23. All six of his touchdowns from last season came inside the red zone. I think there is room for some positive regression in the touchdown department for Allen, especially with defenses having to focus more and more on Mike Williams. Also, I think we can assume that Herbert will look even better than he did last year, maybe not in terms of yards, but efficiency, which was already tremendous last year, presenting Allen with the eighth highest catchable target rate last year at 83.4%. Allen will be a consistent WR1 with significant upside if he can find the end zone more frequently.

It seems criminal to rank Tyreek Hill this low in fantasy, given everything he’s done with the Chiefs the last half decade. However, Tua Tagovailoa is most definitely not Patrick Mahomes, despite what Hill might be saying. I think Hill was in the dream situation in Kansas City, where he got to pair his league-breaking speed with Mahomes’ cannon of an arm. Tua has yet to display anywhere near Mahomes’ arm talent, just like basically every other quarterback in the league has.

The one thing Tyreek might be right about is Tua’s accuracy. While Tua ranked 30^th in deep ball attempts last season with only 28, he ranked first in completion percentage of those throws at an even 50%. If he can continue to have that accuracy downfield and he continues to develop more arm strength, there is obvious upside for Tyreek. Other than Tua being a major factor in Tyreek’s fantasy production, the new offensive scheme might be as well. If new head coach Mike McDaniel stays committed to the running game as he did in San Francisco, the sheer amount of passing volume in Miami could be towards the bottom half of the league. So, while Tyreek Hill may still be one of the best receivers in football, there’s a solid chance that his production with the Dolphins comes nowhere near what he put up with the Chiefs.

Tier 5 (High-end WR2s with WR1 Upside)

12. Michael Pittman Jr.
13. AJ Brown
14. DJ Moore
15. Mike Williams
16. Tee Higgins
17. Terry McLaurin
18. Brandin Cooks
19. Diontae Johnson

Receiver is my favorite position to target early and often in fantasy this year in large part to the amount of talent there is available. This next tier contains a bunch of players that I’m high on either because of their talent or their situation, or both. With the league still being as pass happy as they’ve ever been and running backs getting injured more and more often based off the amount of hits they take, I view receiver as the safest position in fantasy. I also think that, other than the stud running backs that get the vast majority of their snap shares, they have the most overall upside.

To kick off one of my favorite tiers, we start with Michael Pittman Jr. He dominated the Colts target volume, leading the team with 129 targets, with the next highest amount of targets being 69 to Zach Pascal. The Colts’ receiving core didn’t get much better this offseason, with the projected depth chart most likely going to be rookie Alec Pierce and Parris Campbell, who’s struggled to stay healthy so far to start his NFL career. This makes me think Pittman could dominate the receiving volume once again for Indianapolis, and he’ll be doing so with a much better quarterback.

Last year with Carson Wentz at the helm, Pittman had the 44^th best catchable target rate at 76.7%. In comparison to new Colts’ quarterback Matt Ryan’s #1 receiver last year, Russell Gage drew the 20^th best catchable target rate at almost 81%. Now, I’m not saying Matt Ryan is playing like the former MVP Matt Ryan, but he’s a definitive upgrade that has shown he can support an alpha wide receiver in fantasy before with Julio Jones. While I’m not saying that Michael Pittman is Julio Jones, I think Julio Jones type production isn’t outside the possible range of outcomes for him.

I don’t think anyone has ever questioned the talent of A.J. Brown, it’s always just been about if he can produce in Tennessee’s run heavy offense and if he can stay healthy. I know Brown hasn’t missed many games (only six missed games in his first three seasons), but he always seems to have some lingering issue that stays with him from a week-to-week basis. Injuries aside, Brown is an elite talent. However, the move to Philly this offseason brings a lot of the same questions that we had about him in Tennessee.

The Eagles ran the ball more than everyone in the NFL besides, you guessed it, the Titans. Jalen Hurts might have room to grow as a passer, but last season he was a worse passer than Ryan Tannehill in terms of completion percentage and passing yards. While I think Hurts takes a step forward as a passer, between Brown, Devonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, I’m not entirely sure Brown will see the volume he deserves, especially with the amount the Eagles will presumably run the ball again.

Another talented wide receiver in another tricky situation. D.J. Moore has shown that he can get the job done year in and year out, despite having abysmal quarterback play throughout his career. Now the young stud wide receiver has the best quarterback of his career in former #1 pick Baker Mayfield, who should win the starting job over Sam Darnold in training camp. Both those statements (best QB of career and winning job over Darnold) don’t mean much. Since Moore was drafted in 2018, he’s had Kyle Allen, Cam Newton, P.J. Walker, Teddy Bridgewater, Will Grier and Darnold throwing him the ball. Yikes.

Despite poor quarterback play, Moore has had three straight 1,100 yard seasons. The issue has been in the touchdown department, where he has had three straight seasons with exactly four touchdowns. That stems straight from quarterback play, where he had only 13 red zone targets last season and an atrocious catchable target rate of 71.6%. While Baker wasn’t great last year, he was also injured for a majority of the season. I don’t think Mayfield is a great quarterback by any means, but both those numbers should only increase with Mayfield at the helm.

On the other side of Keenan Allen in that electric Chargers’ offense is Mike Williams, someone I’ve loved ever since he was drafted out of Clemson. He’s been very boom-or-bust during his five-year NFL career, and it was more of the same last season, just with a lot more boom than usual. Through five weeks of the season last year, he was the #2 wide receiver in all of fantasy, behind Cooper Kupp. This was in large part due to his whopping 51 targets and 6 touchdowns during that stretch. However, once defenses figured out that Mike Williams was going to function as more than just a deep threat last season, they did more to take him away than Keenan Allen.

With another offseason to further develop chemistry with superstar Justin Herbert, Mike Williams could well be on his way to another big year. Their chemistry wasn’t always on point last season, evident by his 60^th ranked catchable target rate of 72.9%. Williams was also banged up a decent amount last season, which showed during the stretch run. If Williams can stay healthy and the Chargers look for him more frequently, he has 1,200, double-digit touchdown upside.

Following what the main direction of this tier is, I have another young up-and-comer in a great offense with a great quarterback in Tee Higgins. Higgins is a guy who is the second option in the passing game on his own team, but I think he could see an outside shot at WR1 type of production. Last season he built on his solid rookie year with the first 1,000 yard receiving season of his young career. Despite being the second option to Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins was still able to see 110 targets, which ranked 27^th in the league last season.

Among those targets, 13 of them came in the red zone. That also ranked inside the top 30 in the NFL. Higgins could have even more red zone targets this season as the Bengals look to utilize his massive 6’4” frame as the field becomes more and more congested. The one negative I will say about Tee Higgins is that for a big guy outside, his contested catch rate was only 25%, which was 71^st in the league. For the Bengals to continue to trust Higgins in those key moments in games, whether it’d be third downs or in the red zone, he’ll have to start winning the battle for the 50/50 balls.

I think Terry McLaurin is extremely similar to D.J. Moore. He has boatloads of talent but his production has been capped by terrible quarterback play. He has been very productive despite said terrible quarterback play (back-to-back 1,000 yard receiving seasons). And now, like Moore, should be getting the best quarterback of his young career in Carson Wentz who, despite some of the absolutely horrendous picks, wasn’t terrible last season.

Wentz finished tenth in touchdown passes with 27, and only threw seven actual interceptions, although he tallied 28 interceptable passes, which was eleventh in the league. The best part about Wentz pairing up with McLaurin however is the fact that his best attribute is his deep ball. Wentz threw 60 passes of over 20 yards, and was sixth in the league in deep ball completion at 43.3%. McLaurin saw the second most deep targets last season with 31, but the quality of those deep throws wasn’t great, with Taylor Heinicke’s deep ball completion rate ranked 25^th at just under 33%. If Wentz and McLaurin can form some chemistry before the season starts, we could see some BOMBS between the duo that gives McLaurin some more touchdown upside.

I view Brandin Cooks as sort of a Keenan Allen type in terms of fantasy production. You know that you can count on double-digit fantasy points almost every week, no matter the situation. Look at last year for example. Cooks finished as WR20 on the season with Davis Mills at quarterback for one of the worst offenses in the NFL. He had his sixth 1,000 yard receiving season in eight years, and the only two years where Cooks didn’t eclipse 1,000 yards were the only seasons where he didn’t see 100+ targets.

Like last season, Cooks is the #1 wide receiver in an offense that projects to be among the league’s worst yet again. However, if Davis Mills takes another step as a sophomore and with a full offseason to further his connection to Cooks, Cooks could be surprisingly productive once again. The other thing Brandin Cooks won’t have to worry about is sharing any of the volume, as evident by him more than doubling the next most targeted player on the Texans last season.

Last up in this tier is Diontae Johnson, who I think is sort of a blend of everything I’ve talked about in this tier. He’s been the undisputed target hog of Pittsburgh’s offense the last two seasons, putting up the third most targets (313) in the league over the past two seasons, right behind Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs. Part of this is because Johnson was the guy running most of the short route for the Steelers, which made him the de facto target leader due to Big Ben’s inability to throw the ball past the first down markers the past couple seasons. This is also evident in Johnson’s aDOT (average depth of target) of 8.2, which ranked as 76^th in the league last season.

Now, with Big Ben officially retired, there’s a couple of new quarterbacks in town, but it seems most likely that the team will run with Mitch Trubisky as the starter to start the season. In his last full season as a starter, Trubisky wasn’t good by almost any standard. However, he did rank twelfth in deep ball attempts with 66, which could hurt Johnson’s volume a little bit, with most of those targets projected to go to Chase Claypool and rookie George Pickens. But who knows? Diontae has proven he is a good wide receiver, who probably will have the ability to do other things on the field rather than just be Big Ben’s safety blanket.

Tier 6 (Talented WR2s with Questions Surrounding Them)

20. Courtland Sutton
21. Jaylen Waddle
22. Amari Cooper
23. Amon Ra St. Brown
24. K. Metcalf

This next tier of wide receivers are guys who I think have top-end talent, but their situations might be tough to get serious volume in. Either there are too many mouths to feed, or the quarterback situation is harder to overcome, but these guys have displayed immense ability in their past to think about trusting them to overcome their situations.

I went back and forth on whether I should put Courtland Sutton in the tier above this one or if settling him here was the best of both worlds. Sutton’s obviously been hampered by terrible quarterback play in Denver the past couple of seasons and had to overcome a torn ACL suffered in 2020. But in 2019, Sutton put up a receiving line of 72 catches, 1,112 yards and 6 touchdowns. During that season, he was first in air yards share of the Broncos’ offense with a massive 42.9% share, eleventh in deep targets with 26, and seventh in the NFL in red zone targets with 20.

Sutton has good size at 6’3” and has proven to be a reliable red zone and deep threat throughout his young career. Now, with by far the best quarterback of his career in Russell Wilson, he has a real chance to shine. It also helps that Wilson’s best attribute is his deep ball, where even in a shortened season for him last year, he finished fifth in deep ball attempts with 77, and was first in air yards per attempt with 10.1. If Sutton and Wilson can develop chemistry early and often this offseason, Sutton can be what D.K. Metcalf was for Russell Wilson the past few years. I see some potentially massive upside with Sutton this season, if he can beat out Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick for targets.

Once again, we have a guy who has produced in the past, but the past isn’t very far behind with Jaylen Waddle. During Waddle’s rookie year, he broke the rookie catch record with 104 catches, the most by a Dolphins receiver since Jarvis Landry. It helped that he played with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in college and he had very minimal competition for targets last season, finishing almost 70 targets ahead of the next most targeted wide receiver for Miami. That won’t be the case this season.

After Miami made the massive trade to acquire Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs, Waddle will no longer be the #1 wide receiver in this offense. I think this could help him more than it hurts him though. Waddle’s aDOT was 6.3 last season, which was 88^th in the NFL. However, it was less than a yard worse than Travis Kelce’s from last season for Kansas City, who finished the season with a 7.2 aDOT. Now, I’m not saying Waddle is Travis Kelce, but with Hill pulling all the defensive attention towards him on deep routes, this could give Waddle even more room to work in the short game. There aren’t many teams that have the cornerbacks necessary to defend both of these talented wide receivers, and I think Waddle could still see more targets than Hill this season, despite the massive difference in contract value.

Amari Cooper’s fantasy value is almost solely tied to whatever happens with the Watson suspension. If Cooper is Watson’s WR1 throughout the whole season, we could see Cooper put up WR1 numbers in fantasy. But if he has Jacoby Brissett for half the season or longer, he definitely will see a downtick in projected production. With the Deshaun Watson news supposedly coming out sometime sooner rather than later, we’ll know Cooper’s fantasy status before the start of the season, and before most of you start your drafts.

I think I am still a bit higher on him with Brissett as his potential quarterback. No matter who is QB for the Browns to start the season, Cooper is by far and away the best receiver on this team. That means he should dominate the targets no matter what, potentially seeing a career-high amount of volume, with his previous career high in targets coming back in 2016 with 131. The main question is whether those targets will be coming from Watson with pristine precision or if they’ll be coming from Brissett, whose numbers have never been better than a bottom third QB.

Next up is Amon Ra St. Brown, the sophomore wide receiver for the Lions, who’s last six games of last season skyrocketed him up this year’s draft boards. Over his final six games last season, Amon Ra had 51 catches for 560 yards and 5 touchdowns. Two of those performances came against top-10 passing defenses last season in terms of yards allowed. Amon Ra displayed great talent after the catch, ranking inside the top-12 in the NFL with 435 yards after catch. St. Brown did all this with Jared Goff as his quarterback, which in all honesty, suits Goff’s game as a check down machine.

Over the last two seasons, Goff has checked down at an 8.1% rate, good for ninth in the league. This supports all these Lions’ skill players, namely D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson and especially Amon Ra, who did most of his work out of the slot last season. Now, with rookie Jameson Williams and D.J. Chark most likely taking he outside snaps, defenses will have to worry about everyone’s ability to make plays, potentially creating more room for St. Brown to go to work out of the slot.

Last in this tier is one of the hardest guys to rank in my opinion, and that’s D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf reminds most people of a Julio Jones with the types of routes he runs and his top-end physical profile. I don’t think that’s an irrational comparison, but with Drew Lock and Geno Smith currently battling it out for starting quarterback duties in Seattle, he could have a seriously hard time putting up fantasy relevant numbers. Even with his upside as a deep threat (30 deep targets last season, 3^rd among receivers) and a red zone threat (19 RZ targets, 11^th overall), those targets came from Russell Wilson primarily.

I will say, In the three games Geno Smith started for Wilson last season, D.K. only had 14 catches, but three of them were touchdowns. Even if Metcalf doesn’t have the type of ceiling he did with Russell Wilson at the helm, he’s still one of the biggest threats to score any given week. While the threat level clearly declines whoever the quarterback is to start the season, his ability to produce touchdowns should still make him fantasy relevant. Plus, in the event Jimmy Garappolo ends up in Seattle, Metcalf’s ceiling goes right back up.

Tier 7 (Michael Thomas)

25. Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas is another one of the guys this season who I think is just impossible to rank. If Thomas comes back from his mysterious ankle injury looking like the guy from 2019, he could blow this ranking out of the water. He was the clear #1 WR in fantasy that year, posting a ridiculous 149 catches for 1,725 yards and 9 touchdowns. But by the start of this season, that will have been three seasons ago, and it was with Drew Brees, one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

Now, Thomas joins what is most likely the best receiver room of his career with first round pick Chris Olave and free agent acquisition Jarvis Landry joining the fold. Along with Alvin Kamara still on the roster, there will be more competition for targets than Thomas has ever seen. Add on the fact that he no longer has that built in connection with the starting quarterback like he had with Brees, and there’s a shot that despite Thomas’ immense talent, he’s no longer even the most productive receiver on his own team. I’m buying this New Orleans Saints offense with Winston at the helm, I’m just not sure if the receiver to buy is Michael Thomas, although he does come cheap right now, with his ADP around the backend of round seven.

Tier 8 (Solid Flexes with WR2 Upside)

26. Marquise Brown
27. Allen Robinson
28. Gabriel Davis
29. Jerry Jeudy
30. Chris Olave
31. Russell Gage
32. Darnell Mooney
33. Adam Thielen
34. Elijah Moore
35. Drake London
36. Robert Woods
37. Allen Lazard

This tier of wide receiver is comprised of guys in better situations than last season and young up-and-comers in projected great offenses. While I don’t have them ranked based off potential, I feel myself drafting the guys who I think have higher ceilings. Although, the veterans have solid value the further they fall down draft boards. That being said, the first receiver in this tier is Marquise Brown, and I feel like he’s the best of both worlds in this tier.

Brown has been the #1 receiver for the Ravens the past couple seasons, normally a part of a run-heavy offense where his skill set wasn’t always utilized properly. Even though Brown had the eighth most deep targets with 27, Lamar Jackson only threw 54 total deep balls, which was ranked 21^st. Now some of that is because Jackson missed five games last season, but Jackson also doesn’t throw the ball on every passing play. He tends to look for a few options, and then takes off running, something he obviously does at an extremely high level.

But Jackson’s innate rushing ability doesn’t exactly help Marquise Brown’s receiving talent. Moving to former college teammate Kyler Murray as his quarterback, and with Arizona’s #1 receiver DeAndre Hopkins suspended the first six games of 2022, Brown could be a top-10 receiver in fantasy throughout the first half of the year. Hopkins was injured much of last season, but he was still on pace for 100+ targets last season. Add in the fact that target leader Christian Kirk left in free agency, and there’s 166 targets missing from last year, to at least start the season. If Murray’s deep ball is as pretty as it was last season (50% completion on 72 attempts), look for fireworks between the former teammates.

One of the biggest disappointments from last season was Allen Robinson. I’m pinning most of the blame from last season on his situation though, where the Bears were a mess in almost every facet offensively last season. Before last season, Robinson finished with back-to-back top-13 seasons in fantasy, in both of which he had at least 150 targets and 1,100 yards. Signing with the Rams this offseason, Robinson is in a much better position to get back to that type of production.

Obviously, with Cooper Kupp already the Rams #1 wide receiver, Robinson will be playing as the second fiddle in L.A.’s offense. This means he probably won’t see 150 targets this season, but they will be the best throws he’s ever had from the best quarterback he’s ever had in Matt Stafford. Plus, Robinson’s strength as a red zone target will be bolstered by the fact that Stafford through the third most of any quarterback in the red zone last season, and he was first in red zone touchdown passes with 32. Robinson couldn’t have picked a better place to revamp his career.

Next up is one of everyone’s favorite preseason breakout candidates in Gabe Davis, and I think the hype is with good reason. I outlined the number of targets Buffalo vacated this offseason when I was writing about Stefon Diggs, and I think Gabe Davis will have some of that volume thrown his way this season. Especially after his monster 8 catch, 201 yards and 4 touchdown performance against Kansas City in the playoffs last season, it’s hard to ignore the potential Davis could have with Allen as his quarterback.

Last season, Allen threw the third most deep balls in the NFL with 80 attempts, and completed 42.5% of those throws, good for ninth in the league. Davis aDOT was 13.4, which was eighth last season. If Allen uses some of those vacated targets to look deep a bit more often, Davis could see a real explosion as the top deep threat to one of the best deep ball throwers in the game. At Davis’ worst this season, I view him as a boom-or-bust flex based off his deep ball production. At his best, he gets 100+ targets from one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and Davis’ efficiency leads him to fringe WR1 numbers.

I like Jerry Jeudy as a player, but I don’t like him nearly as much as I do Courtland Sutton in fantasy this year for the Broncos. While Jeudy has also had the terrible Broncos’ quarterback play that Sutton has dealt with, Jeudy dealt with injuries last season and has never been truly productive at the NFL level. Even as a rookie, Jeudy had 113 targets, but only caught 52 of them. Now, some of that was due to only 62.8% of his targets being catchable, which was ranked 106^th among qualified receivers. However, Jeudy also dropped 8 passes (seventh most) and wasn’t great at winning the battle for 50/50 balls, catching only 27.6% of his contested catches.

The one positive I will say about Jeudy is that during his rookie year, he ran the seventh most deep routes with 25, had the sixth most air yards with 1,536 and was top-20 in aDOT with 13.6 yards per target. So, as much as I like Sutton to blow up this season, Russell Wilson has shown he can support two fantasy relevant receivers in the past with Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Jeudy in theory has just as good a chance at developing a connection with Wilson as Sutton has, I just believe in Sutton more.

My favorite rookie receiver in fantasy this year is by far and away Chris Olave. He was one of the best receivers in college football the past three seasons, using his speed, route running ability and great hands to constantly up his production year by year. I think his speed perfectly complements not only Jameis’ willingness to go deep, but also the underneath targets that Thomas and Landry have. Olave is the main reason that I believe in the Saints’ offense this season because of the versatility he provides and the ability to take some of the defenders away from Landry and Thomas over the top.

While I expect Olave to be good this season, trying to compare his potential production as a rookie to rookie wide receiver production of the past few years is a non-starter. People like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson have proven to be some of the best wide receivers in the entire NFL already, and while Olave has the potential to be a great wide receiver, I don’t think his production will be that good that quickly, especially with all the weapons Jameis has at his disposal.

Russell Gage was initially higher on my rankings here, but with the signing of Julio Jones, I’m not sure how much work Gage is going to see. That being said, I do think there is still serious upside for Gage for a few reasons. One is the fact that he is at worst the slot receiver to start the season for the Bucs, unless Godwin miraculously recovers in time for the start of the season. At best, all three of Evans, Godwin and Julio miss time at some point this season, leaving more volume for Gage to gobble up.

Also, if you’re someone wondering if Russell Gage even has a shot to become the third wide receiver on the team with Julio now on the squad, think again. Gage was twelfth overall in terms of route win rate at 47.3%, win rate versus man coverage at 42.6% and he was even higher rated in zone coverage with a 45.5% win rate. Gage has some serious talent, and he flashed it at times last season for the Falcons as their #1 wide out. He will get his playing time, it’s just a question of how much now.

I see Darnell Mooney In the same light as I do Brandin Cooks, except with potential for much more variance depending on how Justin Fields develops in year two. He will be the runaway alpha wide receiver in a Bears’ offense that, if we’re being honest, lacks NFL-caliber talent at all of their skill positions sans David Montgomery and Mooney. He led the team in targets last year with 140, which was actually good for eleventh in the league. Somewhat like Russell Gage, Mooney deserved those targets as a result of his ability to get open, where he was also a top-12 guy in terms of win rate versus man coverage with a 43.1% rate.

Mooney is also one of the few guys in the NFL this season that could theoretically double up the next most targeted Bear wide receiver next season, with tight end Cole Kmet most likely to get around 100 targets next season as well. If Fields development gets a jump from no longer having Matt Nagy calling the plays, we could see a breakout year for Mooney, who should be a solid flex candidate week in and week out.

Next up is one of the older players in this tier in Adam Thielen, but despite his age (31) and missed time (missed 5 games over the past two seasons) he’s still be fairly productive. His main production point comes from his scoring prowess. Over the last two seasons, Thielen tied Tyreek Hill for third most touchdown receptions with 24. While touchdowns are easily the most variable thing in fantasy, it shows Kirk Cousins trusts him where it matters most. Last season, Thielen was 23^rd in red zone targets with 15, but he missed four games. Two seasons ago, he was third with 20.

I will say with Thielen, I think there is more downside than upside, and I’m ranking him closer to his ceiling than his floor based off of how high I am on the Vikings’ offense this season. Thielen could get hurt, see a downtick in efficiency, or even have his red zone usage swooped by the dynamic Justin Jefferson or returning tight end Irv Smith Jr. Plus, K.J. Osborne looked good last season when filling in for Thielen, which might make Minnesota think about limiting his snaps as they try to keep him fresh for a potential postseason run.

This next ranking depends almost entirely on how Zach Wilson looks for the Jets in his second season as the starting quarterback. Elijah Moore looked like one of the better young receivers in the NFL last season, especially from week eight on. While Moore was out for the team’s final five games, but from week eight through week thirteen, Moore averaged almost 6 catches per game to go along with 76.5 yards per game and 5 touchdowns. That is extremely solid production, especially from a rookie wide receiver that had one of the worst quarterbacks in the league last year.

Now in his second year in the NFL, Moore will have to deal with Zach Wilson yet again this season, along with more competition for targets. The Jets took Garrett Wilson in the first round of this year’s draft to pair with Moore on this outside. Both are extremely talented players, but until Zach Wilson demonstrates that he belongs on an NFL field, you’re just betting on talent to overcome situation. The one thing that Moore has going for him is the fact that the Jets will most likely trail in a lot games this upcoming season, meaning plenty of passing will be required of the Jets, whether they like it or not. Considering they finished 13^th in pass attempts last season, I think they could break the top-10 is pass attempts, just probably not passing efficiency.

My second favorite rookie receiver for fantasy is Drake London, solely based on the volume he should receive as a rookie. There isn’t a whole lot of talent behind London on the depth chart and outside of tight end Kyle Pitts, London should see the second highest target share on the Falcons. I can see a path for him to get to 100+ targets without needing a trade or an injury in front of him, because there simply isn’t anyone in front of him. However, I think his ceiling will be low-end WR2 because of the quality of those projected targets.

Atlanta projects to be one of the worst teams in football next season, which could mean the Falcons through even more than they did last season, where they finished 19^th in the league in pass attempts. Those passes were coming from former MVP Matt Ryan. This year’s passes will be coming from journeyman Marcus Mariota and potentially rookie Desmond Ridder later in the season. I think Ridder starting would present higher upside for both Pitts and London, but truth is we don’t know that for sure and it isn’t even guaranteed to happen this season. With all that in consideration, I think London could start slow but have a big second half of the year once he gets his feet wet in the NFL.

The last veteran guy in this tier is Robert Woods, who is now a Tennessee Titan after being traded by the Rams this offseason. That seems like a downgrade on the surface, and it probably is, but I kind of like Woods’ fit with the Titans. As I already talked about with A.J. Brown, Ryan Tannehill is not a good quarterback. But Robert Woods should easily be the #1 wide receiver in Tennessee, and he’s great at every aspect of being a receiver. He’s a great blocker, great rusher and is still a pretty good receiver.

A torn ACL held Woods to only nine games last season, but in his three seasons prior, Woods had at least 120+ targets, 86 receptions and either 6 touchdowns or 1,100 yards in each season. I’m not entirely sure if Woods can get back to that form now that he’s 30 years old and is coming off a major knee injury, but I’m sure the Titans will find out by giving him all the volume he can handle. Other than Woods, the only other guy on this roster that deserves significant targets is first rounder Treylon Burks, who is reportedly struggling so far in camp this offseason. Tennessee will be able to get creative in how they use both of those wide receivers around superstar running back Derrick Henry, and I think Woods will be the main beneficiary of that creativeness.

Last in this tier is Aaron Rodgers’ #1 projected target heading into the season. How is it possible that Allen Lazard isn’t getting more love if only due to the fact that he’s the #1 target for AARON RODGERS? It’s because he’s not Davante Adams, and the truth is, we don’t know who is going to get the majority workload from Rodgers this season with Adams gone. Lazard is the easy projection because unlike the other three most likely candidates, Rodgers has thrown passes to Lazard before.

After doing some more research on Lazard, it didn’t take long to find the few things that stood out. Even with Adams in last season, Lazard finished 16^th among receivers in red zone targets with 16. Adams had 28 last year, which ranked third amongst receivers. I can easily see Lazard fetching anywhere from 22-25 red zone targets this year, more if he capitalizes on them early. That could lead to a double-digit touchdown season, which would most likely be his bread and butter as a fantasy player. Look, Rodgers could easily just spread the ball out to every receiver and all of them kind of hurt each other’s ceilings. But if Lazard can at least hang on to his red zone role alone, I think he’s definitely a flex candidate to start the season.

Tier 9 (DeAndre Hopkins)

38. DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins is another guy in his own tier due to his six game suspension to start the season. There are concern though, especially after last season, about his ability to stay healthy now that he’s on the wrong side of 30, and his overall effectiveness. However, I think the questions regarding his effectiveness are a little overblown. Hopkins was 21^st in win rate versus man coverage (39.8%), 30^th in overall win rate (42.2%) and 4^th overall in fantasy points per target versus man coverage at 2.46 fantasy points per target. Those are still quality numbers, not to mention he was still 7^th in red zone targets (18) despite missing seven games and he had 8 touchdowns.

Yes, the Cardinals got Marquise Brown and yes, I think he’ll be really good with Kyler Murray. That doesn’t change the fact that when Hopkins comes back from suspension, I still think he’ll get target share somewhere around 24-26% AND he’ll most likely command majority of the red zone work as well. So, while I wouldn’t draft him before you have three capable wide receivers, he could still be a valuable asset come playoff time.

Tier 10 (Tier 8 Wannabes with Questions Surrounding Them)

39. Julio Jones
40. JuJu Smith-Schuster
41. Rashod Bateman
42. DeVonta Smith
43. Christian Kirk
44. Hunter Renfrow
45. Brandon Aiyuk
46. Chase Claypool
47. Kadarius Toney
48. Treylon Burks
49. Tyler Lockett
50. Garrett Wilson

This is officially the tier where I am just solely drafting for upside, but I felt there were a few veterans who probably deserve to be ahead of some of my dart throws. With that being said, I won’t be doing too much writing about these guys, especially the ones where I’ve already highlighted most of their situation from prior receivers from their teams.

The biggest NFL news in the past week or so happened yesterday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed future Hall of Fame wide receiver Julio Jones. To be completely honest, I probably won’t have Julio Jones this high by the time the regular season starts, but until we know his defined role on this team, he could be as high as the third receiver on the Bucs’ depth chart. The last guy who was Tom Brady’s third receiver was Antonio Brown, who despite a dramatic ending, was putting up great numbers for a #3 target. For all we know, that could still be Russell Gage’s role, but Julio wasn’t as washed up as some people think he was last season.

The key for Julio will be staying healthy, not necessarily staying effective. Last year when he was on the field for the Titans, Julio was 28^th in aDOT with 11.6 yards per target, 39^th in win rate versus man coverage with a 36.8% rating and he was 4^th overall in contested catch rate with a 64.3% rating, albeit only on 14 targets. So, while Julio isn’t prime Falcons Julio Jones anymore, he is still a productive receiver, and I’m sure the greatest quarterback of all time will be able to get the best out of him IF HE STAYS HEALTHY.

Next is JuJu Smith-Schuster, but it could be whichever Chiefs wide receiver your highest on really. For me, it came down to a conversation between JuJu and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, so I went with the one who has produced big numbers before. Plus, I think JuJu will most likely handle a bigger overall workload than MVS does, while MVS functions as Mahomes’ primary deep threat. During JuJu’s last full season, he had 97 catches for 831 yards and 9 touchdowns. I think with Mahomes at quarterback, he should be able to close in on those numbers again.

I’m not really buying into the Rashod Bateman hype, despite the fact that he will be Lamar Jackson’s #1 receiving option not named Mark Andrews. Yes, Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins are gone, which does vacate 193 targets. But I think the Ravens are going to go really ground heavy as a result of getting J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards back from torn ACLs. I could see the team being the #1 overall rushing team next season like they were in 2020, when they also passed the fewest of any team in the league. Rashod Bateman should get plenty of opportunity in Baltimore, which should give him some fantasy value alone. But I see more upside with other guys in this tier and below.

With Devonta Smith, a lot of the same arguments that apply to A.J. Brown apply here. Except with Smith, he’s no longer the #1 option on the team with Brown’s arrival. I think that Smith’s fantasy outlook is determined by two main things and those are the type of offense the Eagles plan on running this season and Jalen Hurts development as a passer. If Jalen Hurts improves and the Eagles end up throwing the ball more, Smith has WR2 upside. If they continue to run the ball and Hurts doesn’t become the quarterback of the future, Smith most likely becomes a boom-or-bust flex option at best.

The most overpaid wide receiver in the league is up next in Christian Kirk. While it’s obvious that Kirk’s contract from the Jacksonville Jaguars helped destroy the wide receiver market this offseason, it was a necessary investment for the team. Last year’s #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence had no weapons to throw to and it showed in his stats. Now, Jacksonville has given Lawrence a good receiver who has a chance to develop into a 1,000 yard guy with double-digit touchdowns if everything goes right for him. That’s also assuming Trevor Lawrence takes a step forward now with Urban Meyer out of the picture.

I think Hunter Renfrow can still put up some numbers, even with Davante Adams coming in and Waller getting healthy. He took majority of his snaps from the slot last season (64.1% slot snaps which was ninth most), where he’ll still have very minimal competition from. Adams will lineup on the outside with Renfrow in the slot and Waller at tight end, which makes me think Renfrow will be the opposing defenses third worry instead of him being their first or second last season. Look for Renfrow to at least produce flex-worthy numbers in PPR, and he’s elite insurance incase Davante Adams gets hurt.

Probably the biggest beneficiary to me of the quarterback change in San Francisco is Brandon Aiyuk. Trey Lance looks to push the ball downfield a lot more than Jimmy G did, which favors Aiyuk’s ability as a deep threat. I also think that Aiyuk will compete with Deebo to see who Lance’s “guy” is that he looks to for quick throws if he’s getting pushed out of the pocket. I like taking late dart throws on talented, high upside guys, and Aiyuk fits that bill, especially if there is an injury to Deebo or Kittle.

Like Aiyuk with Lance, I think Chase Claypool is the biggest beneficiary with the Steelers’ quarterback change. With Trubisky leading the charge, I already talked about how he will look deep way more than Roethlisberger has in the last two seasons, something that Claypool needs to reach his full potential. He can be a matchup nightmare for defenses if used correctly. His 6’4”, 238lb frame gives him the ability to bring down those deep passes, and he can burn corners with his speed. If Claypool can garner some more deep targets and the Steelers aren’t a dink and dunk team every play next season, Claypool could get back to his rookie touchdown production.

The first and only Giants’ wide receiver on this tier list is Kadarius Toney. The only reason Toney makes this list is because he showed serious talent last season despite being hurt pretty much the entire year. Toney only played in 10 games last season, and wasn’t hugely productive in most of them, but I think that was in large part due to the Giants being terrible and not knowing how to run an offense. With Brian Daboll coming in as head coach, he’ll look at Toney and see that he’s the offenses second best player other than Barkley and he needs a bigger role. Especially if the Giants start passing more next season in a better offensive system and Toney keeps his 28.9% target share (or raises it), he could put up serious numbers, especially after the catch.

These next three guys I feel like I touched on enough during their teammates’ summaries (Robert Woods for Treylon Burks, D.K. Metcalf for Tyler Lockett and Elijah Moore for Garrett Wilson) so I’m just going to summarize them all in one. For Burks, the main thing for him will be if the Titans throw enough to support both Woods and himself, but even if they do, will Tannehill be good enough? I’m not sure about that, but I’m sure Burks will flash at times throughout the season so that we hope he gets out of Tennessee. For Lockett, it’s all about quarterback situation. D.K. at least has the saving grace of a being a dominant red zone threat with elite athleticism, but Lockett should still see enough targets to remain as a matchup dependent flex throughout the year. And with Wilson, it’s all about Wilson, the quarterback not himself. For both Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson, they will need their quarterback to step his game up to support their immense talent levels.

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Photo Credits: ProFootballTalk – NBC Sports

All statistics used are sourced through hyperlinks within the text. Thanks to everyone whose work helped me complete my tier list. Goodluck and Happy Drafting!